Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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953 FXUS65 KTFX 101707 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1107 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...Aviation Section Updated... .SYNOPSIS... Scattered rain showers across North Central and Southwest Montana diminish this morning, with a few showers along the Hi-Line this evening as a quick weather system from Canada moves through the MT/Canadian Border this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, dry conditions are in store through the work week. Windy conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday. Potential for a few shower activity returns Friday afternoon for Southwest Montana, but otherwise dry conditions continue through early next week. && .UPDATE... Almost all of the rain showers from this morning have moved east out of North-central and Central Montana. The rest of the showers will move out of the area within the next hour. This afternoon isolated light showers will move south from Canada to the Hi- Line. The rest of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana will remain dry for the rest of today aside from a shower a two that could sneak south of the Hi-Line. For this morning`s update, dewpoint values this morning were increased to better reflect current observations and trends. Winds speeds and wind gusts were increased due to the latest model runs and current observations indicating higher speeds and gusts than were forecasted. Pops and QPF for this afternoon were tweaked primarily along the Hi-Line to better reflect the latest Hi-res model guidance. The rest of the forecast is on track. -IG && .AVIATION... 10/18Z TAF Period Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through trough the early evening hours tonight along and north of the US Hwy 2 corridor (i.e. KHVR to KCTB terminals); however, the probability for any one shower impacting the KHVR or KCTB terminals through 03z Tuesday is below a 30% chance. Scattered to broken VFR/low-VFR CIGS are expected through the afternoon hours today across all terminals as the disturbance responsible for the early morning precipitation slides east, with breezy and gusty west to northwest winds at the terminals in Central and North Central Montana (i.e. KHLN, KGTF, KLWT, KCTB, and KHVR). Mountains will be obscured at times through 03-09z Tuesday. - Moldan Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ Today through Thursday...Light scattered rain showers and thunderstorms continue to diminish this morning across the region. Another upper level shortwave moves through the MT/Canadian border this afternoon and evening bringing a few light rain showers to the Hi-Line region tonight. Otherwise, conditions begin to dry out today. Winds and dry conditions are the primary impact concerns the next few days as upper level troughing moves out of our region today and upper level ridging builds back in for Tuesday. Breezy conditions can be seen this afternoon in the wake of the upper level trough, then diminish through the evening hours before ramping back up for Tuesday which has stronger wind gusts in store. Ensemble model guidance is still hinting at a few standard deviations above climatology for wind gusts for this time of year, where a few locations across the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent Hi-Plains region could see wind gusts 45 to 55 mph. Winds on Wednesday will also be gusty between 35 and 45 mph across North Central and Southwest Montana with latest National Blend of Models 4.2 probabilistic data suggesting wind gusts above 45 mph is high (greater than 75 percent) for along the Rocky Mountain Front and high for 30 to 35 mph everywhere else. With recent moisture from scattered rain showers across the region, fire weather concerns are low during this timeframe even with low relative humidity values occurring on Wednesday and the windy conditions. Gusty winds diminish overnight Wednesday with dry conditions continuing for Thursday and Friday morning. Friday through early next week... Ensemble models are starting to agree more on upper level ridging beginning to break down Friday and Saturday with upper level troughing moving into our region Sunday into early next week. While there is still great uncertainty on what this entails for weather conditions, winds and fire weather will continue to be monitored during this time period as we dry out from the previous week. The Climate Prediction Center still has our area in below normal temperatures for this timeframe with latest forecast models suggesting high temperatures in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Webb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 77 49 83 54 / 10 10 0 0 CTB 75 48 80 50 / 20 10 0 0 HLN 82 52 87 55 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 78 47 83 50 / 50 0 0 0 WYS 70 40 74 42 / 60 10 0 0 DLN 76 46 83 49 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 76 51 85 53 / 70 40 0 0 LWT 74 47 80 50 / 70 10 0 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls