465
FXUS65 KTFX 121643
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1043 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and breezy to windy conditions are expected over the next couple
of days while temperatures generally run above average. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms will arrive this weekend as
another weather system moves through the area bringing cooler and
windier weather.

&&

.UPDATE...

Gusty winds are expected across the area today as forecasted.
Aside from some minor tweaks to the temperature to match current
trends, no other changes were made with this update. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...

12/12Z TAF Period

Widespread VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Gusty
westerly winds and turbulence will be the primary concern through
this evening as deep layer mixing increases with the onset of
diurnal heating. Wind gusts will generally stay in the 25 to 45 kt
range, highest over the Rocky Mountain Front and North-central
Montana. - RCG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Today through tomorrow night... Windy conditions across North
Central and Southwest Montana continue through this afternoon then
decrease through the overnight period tonight. Wind gusts are still
supported by the latest National Blend of Models (NBM) 4.2
probabilistic data of reaching 30 to 40 mph from the Rocky
Mountain Front to across the Hi-Line all the way down to Great
Falls from now through this afternoon. Dry conditions and mostly
sunny skies are in store today and tomorrow afternoon with near
normal high temperatures forecasted in the 70s and low 80s in a
few valley locations.

Friday through Sunday... Upper level troughing quickly moves through
Friday and Saturday bringing scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms across Southwest and North Central. A surface cold
front moves through Friday night bringing cooler temperatures for
Saturday and windy conditions Saturday afternoon. For Friday`s
thunderstorms, a line of storms can develop from Big Sky/Bozeman to
Lewistown between noon and 5 PM and move northeast through the early
evening hours Friday night. A few thunderstorms could become on
the strong side with primary concerns being lightning, gusty
winds, and small size hail. Then for Saturday, thunderstorms could
develop from Lewistown to White Sulphur Springs line and move
eastward during the late afternoon into early evening hours.
Otherwise a few scattered light rain showers could develop across
Central Montana Saturday evening. National Blend of Models 4.2
probabilistic data suggests wind gusts have high probabilities
(greater than 75 percent) of reaching greater than 30 mph for
along the Rocky Mountain Front to Helena and down into Southwest
Montana for Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours decreasing
during the early morning hours Sunday. A break in the
precipitation (dry conditions favored) is in store for Sunday
before our next weather system moves in for Monday.

Monday through middle of next week... Our next weather system moves
into the region Monday bringing beneficial precipitation to Southwest
and North Central Montana. Ensemble model guidance is favoring upper
level troughing to move through next week bringing these unsettled
weather conditions to our region. While precipitation amounts are
still uncertain with model guidance, what is known at this forecast
time is higher elevations of our mountainous terrain could see
snowfall as the primary precipitation type and elsewhere could see
rainfall. Those adventuring outdoors in mountainous terrain next
week should begin planning on winter weather and raw backcountry
conditions. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6 to 10 day outlook
has our region in 50 to 60% probability of temperatures likely below
normal for next week. Ensemble and deterministic model guidances are
hinting at 15 to 25 degrees below normal during this timeframe with
forecasting highs in the 50s and 60s where normal temps are in the
70s and low 80s. Webb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  41  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  71  39  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  47  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  81  43  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  76  38  80  45 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  80  43  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  77  45  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  74  42  75  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls