Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
764 FXUS65 KTFX 070039 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 635 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION .SYNOPSIS... Mainly sunny, warm and dry conditions with relatively light winds are expected today before a weak cold front brings a return to near normal temperatures across the Plains. While temperatures are generally expected to warm next week, there is unusually high uncertainty as a few weak systems try to push through the area. && .DISCUSSION... Key Points: -Slight cooldown across the plains tomorrow -Temperatures generally expected to rise next week, though there is unusually high uncertainty in the forecast beyond Sunday -Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms through next week, mainly across Southwestern Montana Through Saturday As a weak area of high pressure traverses the area today, skies have been nearly crystal clear as temperatures have pushed into the 70s across North Central and Southwestern Montana with light winds. Expect this mild and quiet weather to largely continue through the remainder of the day, with just a few clouds passing overhead across the Southwest and along the Hi- Line. Biggest weather feature of the next 24 hours will be the passage of a weak surface cold front across the Plains late this evening and overnight, which will bring a return to seasonable temperatures across the plains for Friday and Saturday even as highs across the Southwestern Valleys remain 5-15 degrees above average. Overall this front should pass through the area with little fanfare, though there may be an isolated shower north of US 2 overnight tonight. Friday and Saturday will bring the development of a few showers and possibly thunderstorms across the higher terrain south of I-90, with the main concern from these showers being isolated lightning strikes. Sunday through next Thursday As we head into next week, uncertainty grows rapidly as a few weak weather systems try to ride over the ridge. Overall, this will lead to a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, especially across Southwestern Montana. Highs will generally be in the upper 70s and low 80s across North Central and Southwestern Montana, though there is quite a bit of room between the 10th and 90th percentile temperatures each day next week (10-15 degrees for some locations). This indicates that temperatures each day will be highly dependent on how these individual waves track, and with as much uncertainty as there is right now I have elected to go with a middle ground solution with respect to temperatures, while having a mention of showers across Southwestern Montana. Ludwig && .AVIATION... 07/00Z TAF Period VFR conditions will generally continue through 08/00Z across North Central (KCTB, KHVR), Central (KLWT, KGTF, KHLN), and Southwest (KBZN, KEKS, KWYS). A disturbance flattening the high pressure ridge over the area will keep a threat for periods of mountain wave turbulence in the moderate westerly flow aloft. Some mid-level moisture passing over Southwest Montana will mainly bring scattered to broken clouds there through around 18Z, with the slight chance of a light rain shower. A weak frontal boundary will also move south of the Canadian border after 06Z, which will shift winds more northerly and gusty at times over the plains. This upslope pattern should help spread lower VFR ceilings over the plains through 12Z as well, with the chance for mountain top obscuring low VFR/high MVFR ceilings mainly being along the east- and north-facing mountain slopes (including KCTB, KGTF, KLWT). After 18Z, winds will start to decrease and ceilings should start to lift. -Coulston Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 50 69 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 46 66 42 67 / 0 10 0 0 HLN 55 81 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 50 81 47 80 / 10 0 0 0 WYS 46 76 42 77 / 10 10 10 10 DLN 51 82 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 48 70 46 72 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 47 68 45 71 / 0 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls