Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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254 FXUS63 KTOP 170507 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1207 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Staying warm throughout the week, eventually turning cooler by the end of the weekend. - Daily rain chances, with best chances Wednesday morning and Saturday/Saturday night && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Still seeing some lingering showers and thunderstorms across north- central Kansas in an area of persistent isentropic ascent. These will are fizzling out now, but will keep down temperatures where thicker cloud cover persists. Elsewhere, expecting another warm day given sunny skies, good mixing, and the upper ridge axis sitting overhead. This ridge axis is between two slow-moving upper lows - one deeper one over the West Coast and one weaker one trapped over the Southeast states. Given only slow movement of the upper pattern, expecting a similar day tomorrow as today. A few more showers/storms will be possible across north-central KS during the morning, with highs approaching 90 once morning clouds dissipate. Late Tuesday into Wednesday, the western upper low will lift north- northeast across the Rockies. The best height falls will stay well to our northwest, but an increasing LLJ will support overnight isentropic ascent over western Kansas, leading to more scattered showers and storms. These will shift east towards the forecast area Wednesday morning, gradually weakening with time and eastern extent. A few showers and storms may linger into Thursday PM as a weakening cold front pushes east, but with the better upper support well to our north, storm coverage looks to be on the low end. Friday and into the weekend, a second upper low digs into the southwest US behind the first before eventually lifting northeast towards the Plains. While some low rain chances continue Friday, it will otherwise be another warm day with highs in the 90s, as Thursday`s weak front largely falls apart before it really pushes through our area. Cooler temperatures and higher rain chances don`t arrive until Saturday and Sunday when the upper low makes its closest approach. Better surface pressure falls and upper forcing do support widespread showers and storms. However there are still some notable differences in the timing, path, and amplitude of the wave that make details uncertain at this point in time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 RAP and NAM progs show the isentropic lift persisting through the morning hours Tuesday across north central KS. Probs that showers could get into MHK look to be around 20 or 30 percent after 12Z. So I may include a VCSH for a few hours. Precip is expected to remain west of TOP and FOE with VFR conditions persisting. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Reese AVIATION...Wolters