035
FXUS63 KTOP 260505
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1205 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory continues through 8pm this evening, with heat
  indices up to 109 degrees.

- Thunderstorms are possible tonight, with highest confidence in
  eastern Kansas. Damaging wind gusts will be possible with the
  storms.

- Hot weather returns Friday, otherwise more seasonal
  temperatures Wednesday and Thursday through the weekend with
  mainly off and on storm chances.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Convective trends are becoming more apparent with the CAMs
finally catching onto to the current storms. There remains quite
a bit of CAPE ahead of the storms moving southeast from NEB, and
this should continue to favor robust updrafts and the potential
for damaging winds as the line of storms moves through northeast
KS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A mid level shortwave was moving out of eastern Kansas and into
Missouri per watervapor Satellite and VWP`s. Convection that had
been associated with it along with clouds were moving off to the
east into Missouri at 19Z. Clearing skies had allowed temperatures
to warm back into the 90s and with dewpoint temps in the 070s most
areas heat indices should rise to around 105 degrees. Will keep the
Heat Advisory going through expiration at 8 PM CDT this evening.

Subsidence in the wake of the wave will give a reprieve from
convection until later this evening when storms are expected to form
along a frontal boundary from Iowa into Nebraska. The short term
models vary on timing and location of the more intense convection,
but it continues to look like a line of storms will move south out
of Nebraska and Iowa into Kansas and Missouri. The highest
probability (40-50%) will remain generally across northeast and east
central Kansas. Damaging winds will be the main hazard from these
storms.

Wednesday, in the wake of the storms, high pressure will build
southward across the central Plains with northeasterly winds
ushering in cooler temperatures. Highs Wednesday are expected to top
out only in the 80s to near 90 with lower humidity no excessive heat
indices are expected.

Wednesday night upslope flow into the western high Plains and a mid
level perturbation moving out of the Rockies will develop
thunderstorms across the high Plains. These storms are expected to
move eastward and weaken as they move into north central and central
Kansas late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Models differ on
location of any waves moving through the quasi zonal flow, but lean
toward highest pops (50-60%) across north central Kansas Thursday
morning where a 50kt low level jet will be focused as well as good
moisture transport within the instability axis. Some strong wind
gusts along with locally heavy rainfall and hail are expected with
the storms.

The heat returns on Friday as the thermal axis expands into
northeast and east central Kansas. Highs top out in the 90s with dew
points in the 70s will yield heat indices around 100 to 105 degrees
in the afternoon hours.

A mid level trough moving across the Plains Friday and Friday night
will push a cold front southward with storms developing along the
frontal boundary across Kansas and Missouri.

There will remain some chances for storms depending on where the
boundary ends up as well as any waves and return flow on the back
side of the high for Sunday into Monday. Uncertainty remains medium
with regards to precipitation chances Sunday through next Tuesday.
Seasonal highs int he 80s are expected over the weekend, before
warming back up into the 90s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Will have a VFR forecast except for when TS are moving through
TOP and FOE. MHK continues to be on the western edge of TS
coverage and will monitor trends for whether it is impacted.
There may be some MVFR stratocu linger through the mid-morning
behind the convection. This should scatter out with VFR
conditions developing by the early afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Record hot temperatures are possible Tuesday


          Record High              Forecast High

June 25   Topeka: 106 (1911)       Topeka: 97
          Concordia: 104 (1988)    Concordia: 100


          Record Highest Minimum   Forecast Minimum

June 25   Topeka: 82 (1911)        Topeka: 79
          Concordia: 80 (1952)     Concordia: 78

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Wolters
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...Wolters
CLIMATE...Poage