Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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560 FXUS63 KTOP 232359 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 659 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms Tuesday. - Rain potential returns late Thursday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The upper-level trough and associated light rain has been slow to exit the area today. Light showers continue across portions of far east central Kansas. CLoud cover has also been stubborn across eastern Kansas. All of this activity will finally exit later this evening. We should see some brief clearing tonight before another trough quickly enters the area. A couple vort maxes will swing through northeast Kansas tonight into tomorrow. The first one may bring some sprinkles or light showers to the area (~20% chances) but the better chance of precipitation will come with a passing cold front late tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Steep lapse rates and at least a few hundred joules of CAPE should be enough for some thunderstorms to develop with the passing of the front and dynamic upper-level system. The next focus turns to this weekend as the remnants of a tropical system may pivot northwestward near our area. There is considerable uncertainty as to how far west it will make it and how progressive the overall pattern will be, but at least portions of the Midwest and maybe even the central Plains could see some good rain this weekend. What is more certain is the temperature profile through the week. A very pleasant week is expected with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. If skies remain clear, shallow ground fog may develop near sunrise. However, mid and high clouds will be moving southeast across the terminals. A surface front will move southeast across the terminals late Tuesday afternoon. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may be possible around the terminals Tuesday afternoon ahead of the front. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Gargan