003
FXUS63 KTOP 091838
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
138 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- River flooding to continue south of I-70 within areas that
received heavy rainfall last night. River Flood warnings remain in
effect overnight and into Monday.

- Mostly dry conditons over the next week with temperatures
  warming into the 90s by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Beautiful conditions have continued to take shape early this
afternoon as morning rain showers have moved east of the area with
clouds clearing for much of northeastern KS. Overnight last night,
areas south of I-70 saw several inches of rain and has led to some
river flooding that will be prevalent through the day tomorrow.
Looking ahead, surface ridging builds in from the north today and
tomorrow keeping skies clear through Monday. Temperatures will
remian pleasant topping out in the low to mid 80s with lows dipping
into the 50s.

By Tuesday, the 850mb ridge will slide to the east of the area,
returning flow back to the south and ushering moisture back into the
region as temperatures top out in the mid to upper 80s. A long wave
trough moving through the northern Plains during the day should push
a weak frontal boundary through Nebraska, potentially making its way
south into Kansas. Still maintain small PoPs with this during the
afternoon on Tuesday (10-20%) for isolated shower or storm to
develop, but with the main axis of lift much further north of the
area, confidence is not high in most areas seeing any notable
precipitation. For the remainder of the week, mid-level heights
increase, promoting warmer temperatures. Expect temperatures to
increase into the 90s from Wednesday into the weekend, with areas in
central KS possibly seeing our first triple digit reading on
Thursday. Another wave passes north of the area Thursday afternoon,
increasing PoPs a bit as a surface boundary slides through the
Plains. Shear and instability should be present ahead of the
boundary and will pose a threat for severe storms during the
afternoon and evening Thursday. The main threat area at this time
will reside along the KS/NE border where shear and lift remain more
robust, but could shift over the coming days. Beyond Thursday`s
storm chances, the next chance for precipitation (30%) comes later
in the weekend with a shortwave moving out the desert southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions will be expected through the TAF at all sites as
surface ridging builds into the area.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer