Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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534 FXUS63 KTOP 082319 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 619 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storm chances (20%) in far east-central KS this afternoon with heavier rain and storms later this evening and overnight. - Locally heavy rainfall will be possible tonight, mainly south of I- 70 with a few storms strong to severe. Damaging winds will be the main concern, but hail up to an inch in diameter will also be possible. - Drier and warm over the next week with small chances for precipitation Tuesday and again late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A cooler but more humid afternoon is underway today as temperatures have crept into the 80s areas wide; low 80s in northern KS and upper 80s in the southern portion of the warning area. This gradient can be attributed to a slow, southward-moving surface boundary that has finally progressed its way south of I-70. This boundary will continue to slide south as an associated surface low tracks south of the area. Zooming out, an upper level disturbance entering the Rockies will become the focal point for convective initation this afternoon across the lee of the Rockies. With low-level moisture pooled up along the aforementioned frontal boundary from Missouri through Colorado, convective initiation along the boundary will also be possible as afternoon heating has resulted in MUCAPE values approaching 4000 J/kg in far southeastern Kansas. Deep shear will also be present across the plains as a 45-50 knot 500 mb jet traverses over Kansas. If convergence along the south-moving boundary can overcome residual MLCIN, a strong to severe storm could develop quickly with a damaging wind and hail threat being the main hazards. For our warning area, areas that have the best chance (20%) of seeing an isolated storm develop would be in far east- central Kansas over the next few hours before the main surface boundary exits into far southeast Kansas. By this evening, congealed convection across western Kansas will track east/southeast towards the area increasing PoPs again for areas mainly along and south of I-70. Current thinking and latest guidance continues to track the strongest and highest QPF south of our area, following the higher theta-e and instability gradients draped from west-central KS to southeast KS. Elevated convection should begin to move in around midnight and track due east into the early morning hours of Sunday. With low-level moisture not anticipated to move quickly and starting to pool in southeastern Kansas, PWs overnight jump between 1.5-2.25 inches for areas south of I-70. While a strong to severe storm capable of a damaging wind gust or 1 inch hail cannot be ruled out overnight, the main concern may point to localized heavy rainfall. This will especially become true with training of thunderstorms where areas could quickly pick up several inches of rain. Precipitation moves out of the area by Sunday morning with clouds scattering out through the day. Surface ridging builds in from the north, keeping the area dry with temperatures generally in the upper 70s and low 80s. The upcoming week will see drier and warmer weather, especially by Thursday where highs could approach the mid to upper 90s. A few small chances for rain move across the Plains Tuesday and Thursday/Friday with Tuesday being the best chance for rain (30%). && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Main concern for the period will be a few hours around and after midnight (5z) as scattered thunderstorms develop north of a frontal boundary. Expecting these storms (with low-end VFR cloud bases) to push off to the southeast by around 10z. This should leave VFR conditions for the remainder of the period, though a weak signal exists for some MVFR ceilings persisting south of the main TAF sites. Northeast winds around 10 kts stay persistent throughout the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Griesemer AVIATION...Reese