Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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653 FXUS63 KTOP 061045 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 545 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers possible this morning, followed by cooler afternoon temps. - A complex of strong to severe storms is progged to move across the state Friday evening - Saturday morning. The strongest storms may produce large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Broad northwest flow stretches through the central CONUS via water vapor imagery this morning. The secondary cold front continues to push into far eastern Kansas at the current hour. Isentropic ascent noted by the mid level clouds will continue to increase in the 310- 320K levels, resulting in scattered showers developing across the area near sunrise, traversing southeast through mid morning. Clouds clear by the afternoon amid northerly winds increasing from 10 to 20 mph. Steady cooler air spreading south should limit highs some to the lower 80s. Focus quickly turns to a strong upper wave and sfc low that deepens over eastern CO by Friday afternoon. Two areas for convection are scattered severe storms over western KS along a dryline and an MCS that develops over NE early evening. There is higher uncertainty for convection in western KS to impact central KS while confidence is moderate for the severe cluster of storms to move into north central during the evening period. MUCAPE values are highest in north central Kansas in upwards of 3000 J/KG while effective bulk shear values in excess of 50 kts suggest updrafts capable of producing large hail, in addition to damaging wind gusts. Track of the optimal dynamic lift aloft coinciding with the southwesterly LLJ direct most of the precipitation and severe potential north of Interstate 70 overnight into Saturday morning. Confidence in the cluster remaining severe as it clips areas south of I-70 is low where instability values drop well below 1000 J/KG by 12Z Saturday. Strong h85 moisture transport sends PWAT values in upwards of 2 inches during this time so will need to monitor the flooding potential as well. After the Friday evening system, Saturday should be a mostly sunny afternoon with light winds and highs in the middle 80s. A progressive secondary wave arrives Saturday evening, developing additional storms along the h85 front that ensembles progged to be in southern KS. Pops are still kept for areas south of I-70 with any slight adjustments in the frontal placement. Severe weather probabilities are currently low for now with the weak wind shear. Quieter and cooler conditions return Sunday and Monday as a northern stream upper trough shifts the ridge eastward, opening back up the more active westerly flow pattern by Tuesday. A low pressure system and frontal boundary is trending towards crossing the state on Tuesday. Have introduced precip chances for this period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 545 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR persists at terminals. Mid level clouds are increasing as showers and scattered TSRA are observed spreading towards the terminals. The convection should persist through 15Z before shifting to the southeast. Skies clear as northerly winds increase to near 10 kts during the afternoon. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Prieto AVIATION...Prieto