Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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951 FXUS63 KTOP 061938 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 238 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms likely Friday night, with potential for large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall. - Stalled boundary provides ample rain chances through the next 5 days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 This morning`s thunderstorms have exited the region, and northerly winds are reinforcing the cooler and drier air compared to yesterday. A surface high pressure is currently analyzed in SW Nebraska, and will slide to the SE into the forecast area through the next 12 hours, and this will result in a wind shift. Southerly winds will begin to advect moisture into the area overnight, and a weak shortwave will act to strengthen the 850 hPa jet tomorrow morning. During the day, another shortwave will move to the east across Nebraska. With better forcing, convection is likely to begin there in central Nebraska around 4 pm. There is a slight chance for convection to form across eastern Kansas at this time, which would pose a risk for large hail and heavy rain. However, the chances for convection in the afternoon is low. The FV3 model is the only one which shows robust convection this early. The storms in Nebraska are likely to move to the southeast, and will approach the Kansas border by around 7 pm tomorrow night. These storms could be severe. With high CAPE above the frontal inversion, there is potential for hail and damaging winds with any storms that form and move across the area. As the storms move across the region, they should weaken due to lower instability. Highest severe weather chances will be in the northern half of the area, but there is still uncertainty about the MCS track this far out. The SPC Day 2 Outlook has a Slight Risk for far northwestern portions of the area, with a main threat of damaging winds. Heavy rainfall will also be possible with thunderstorms. PWAT values approaching 2" will be well above the 90th percentile for this time of the year. There is a Slight Risk for heavy rainfall area wide. One potential saving grace is that storm motions should be relatively quick, limiting the flooding risk. A majority of the most recent CAM guidance has the storms moving out of the CWA by around 2 am. Newer guidance has been trending stronger for the wave Saturday night, and the thinking is that will interact with the boundary and spark additional storms. A Slight Risk of heavy rainfall is in effect for Saturday night for areas south of I-70. Sunday looks like the driest day in the forecast, with clearing skies and highs around 80. Past this weekend, northwesterly flow with multiple disturbances will prevail across the Central CONUS, with multiple chances of rain and thunderstorms in the first half of next week. Towards the middle of next week, we start to dry out and warm up as a ridge slides eastward. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Skies will clear through the afternoon. Overnight, northerly winds will veer to southerly, though the winds will be light before daybreak. Clouds move in tomorrow morning from west to east, but will be high based through this TAF period. Precipitation is not expected. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Montgomery AVIATION...Montgomery