635
FXUS63 KTOP 112324
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
624 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures rise into Thursday reaching toward advisory
  levels

- Strong to severe storms possible Thursday afternoon and
  evening

- Periodic storm chances and hotter temperatures continue through
  the weekend into early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A few mid and high clouds have overspread the area today, as a
weak frontal boundary slowly moves into the area. The upper
trof driving the front is moving across the northern plains,
where most of the better lift for storms remains. Forecast for
the rest of the day remains dry, with highs in the upper 80s to
near 90 most areas. Light south southwest winds expected
overnight with lows in the 60s.

The transition to hotter temperatures begins on Wednesday, as
southwesterly winds and temperatures rise through the day.
Highs forecast from the upper 80s east to middle 90s west.
Wednesday into Thursday the upper pattern flattens as the upper
low off the west coast shifts increasing heights and ridging
overhead. Meanwhile an upper jet streak moves into the north
central plains, eventually driving a frontal boundary southward
into the state on Thursday. The result of the interaction of
these features will be to pool moisture, heat and instability
along and ahead of this boundary, and will likely bring a
decrease in winds along and ahead of it, resulting in hot, muggy
conditions, and heat indices in the 102-107F range across much
of the forecast area. The northern counties may get a bit of a
break and hold with indices in the upper 90s if the boundary
gets far enough south.

The second factor for Thursday is the storm chances, as
instability values rise well into the 3000-4000J/kg by mid
afternoon. Shear values of 30-35kts are sufficient to support
some rotation and hail, although the directional profiles do
have some weak areas that could impact updrafts. DCAPE values do
support a wind threat as well, with some locations in the
1800J/kg range. An 850mb jet of around 20kts will support these
storms as they likely track southeastward along the instability
and moisture gradient through the evening hours before
dissipating.

A resident cold pool may help bring a break to the area on
Friday and hold highs in the low 90s, with lighter winds from
the east. By Friday night into early Saturday the western trof
moves through the rockies, lifts the boundary back northeast
over the area, and brings more chances for storms late Friday
and again into Saturday and Saturday night as the upper trof
passes overhead. May see a break in rain chances for a time on
Saturday and then on Sunday, so the whole weekend isn`t a wash -
but between the heat and the storm chances, will need to be
weather aware through the period.

The pattern remains unsettled into early next week with warm
temperatures continuing and intermixed with rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions continue through the period. Southerly winds look
light tonight before picking up again late Thursday morning,
bringing gusts to around 20 kt throughout the day. Mid to high
clouds should clear heading into Thursday as well.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Craven
AVIATION...Picha