256
FXUS63 KTOP 110901
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
401 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Temperatures trend upward through midweek with the hottest day
 expected to be Thursday when heat index values could approach
 advisory levels.

-Strong to severe storms could also occur late Thursday along a
 surface front.

-Slight chances (20-30%) for storms will remain in the forecast
 through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Early today, a mid-level trough axis is traversing the Upper
Midwest. An associated weak surface boundary is moving through
Nebraska. That front looks to stall north of the forecast area and
wash out this afternoon. Thus, have adjusted POPs to remain less
than 15 percent in northern sections of KS given weak lift along the
dissipating boundary. The temperature trend continues an upward
progression today with highs this afternoon about three to five
degrees warmer than yesterday. The pressure gradient increases
across the forecast area on Wednesday, resulting in stronger
southwesterly winds. Continued WAA with the southerly flow will help
boost temperatures into the low and mid 90s. Moisture will also
continue to increase through midweek.

Our next cold front will move into the area on Thursday. With strong
southwesterly flow and pre-frontal compression, confidence continues
to increase in near advisory level heat index values occurring
Thursday afternoon. Highs could reach 100 degrees in central KS
with the rest of the area reaching the mid 90s. Dew points are
forecast to be in the upper 60s and low 70s as moisture pools
ahead of the aforementioned boundary. That will result in heat
index values between 100 and 105 degrees area-wide. A Heat
Advisory may be necessary as we approach this timeframe.

Additionally, strong to severe thunderstorms could develop along the
front in northeastern KS Thursday afternoon and evening. The very
hot and humid air mass will allow for abundant instability with
ensemble models showing a 50-70% chance of at least 4,000 J/kg
of MUCAPE. Shear will be present but more on the weak side, with
models showing around 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Thus, the
main concern with storms will be damaging wind gusts and hail.

Deterministic models show Thursday`s front stalling across the
forecast area on Friday. Additional storm development could occur if
the front remains in the area, so did increase POPs slightly to
account for this possibility. A mid-level trough then moves out
of the southwestern CONUS and over the central High Plains on
Saturday. Will keep some low end POPs in the forecast for
portions of the weekend as that wave moves over. Confidence on
timing is not high right now given differences in model
evolution of the system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR prevails for the 06Z TAF period. Southwest winds will
increase slightly this afternoon to around 10 kts, subsiding
again after sunset.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey