554
FXUS63 KTOP 141952
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
252 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly above average temperatures continue through next week.

- Dry weather is favored through the weekend with precipitation
  chances increasing by the end of the work week, into next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Early this afternoon, the remnants of Francine continued to be
nearly stationary across the MS River Valley in the tri-state
state area of TN/AR/MS, due to a high over low block across the
eastern conus. Low level moisture was able to advect westward
into eastern KS causing mostly cloudy skies to develop before
sunrise. The stratus is beginning to break up and skies may
become partly cloudy later this afternoon as the depth of the
PBL mixes deeper. A minor perturbation was lifting northeast
across north central KS an may provide enough ascent for a few
showers this afternoon across north central KS, just west of the
CWA.

Temperatures at 2 PM were in the mid to upper 70s due to the cloud
cover but as the stratus mixes out, highs may warm into the lower to
mid 80s late this afternoon.


Tonight through Monday night:

An intense upper trough will dig onshore across the northwest coast
of the US and dig southeast into the southwestern US by 12Z TUE. A
downstream H5 ridge will amplify across the Plains. Look for mostly
dry conditions with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s. There
may be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across north
central KS as richer moisture is advected northward Sunday night into
Monday morning due to a deepening lee surface trough across the high
Plains. The better chances for showers and storms will be across
western KS where a dryline will move east to the CO/KS border Monday
afternoon.

Tuesday through Saturday:

A longer wave length trough will develop across the western US. H5
perturbations will lift northeast into the Plains. The better
chances for thunderstorms Tuesday through Friday will be across
western and central KS ahead of a dryline and where the stronger
ascent ahead of the perturbations will reside. Towards the end
of the week into the weekend shower and thunderstorm chances
will increase across the CWA as most of the longer wave-length
trough lifts northeast across the Plains. A surface cold front
will move across the CWA Saturday afternoon into Sunday
providing our best rain chances. Given richer moisture in place
and an EML spreading across the warm sector ahead of the front,
lapse rates will steepen leading to increasing instability. As
the main H5 jet over spreads eastern KS, the effective shear
may increase over 40 KTS. Therefore, we may have a chance for
strong to severe storms ahead of the surface cold front Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The MVFR ceilings across the terminals should begin to mix out
after 18Z and become mostly clear after 20Z. Forecast soundings
show the potential for ground fog developing near sunrise. My
confidence is medium but but the fog may be patchy and shallow.
At this time I did not include the mention of fog or BR in the
TAFs.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan