Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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759 FXUS64 KTSA 210937 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 437 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Another warm, humid, and breezy day is on tap today ahead of an approaching cold front. The best chance of convective initiation by mid to late afternoon looks to be in the mid level moist axis well ahead of the front from southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. Much if not all of this activity may be elevated above a capping inversion, but some severe threat mainly in the form of hail may develop with this activity. Towards sunset, it is possible that a few storms try to get going near the frontal boundary that will be moving into northeast Oklahoma by that time. All severe hazards will be possible with any storms that develop in this area. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Shower and thunderstorm activity will remain possible this evening into the overnight hours along the cold front as it sags south. The greatest convective coverage is likely to remain across far northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. At least some severe weather threat is likely to persist well into the overnight hours. The front will eventually stall out Wednesday somewhere in the vicinity of the Red River. Widespread convective activity is expected in its vicinity, with some severe threat. A flood threat may eventually develop with time across mainly southeast Oklahoma due to repeated rounds of convection. To the north, more scattered elevated convection with a hail threat will be possible. The front will lift north/wash out Thursday as an upper wave approaches the area triggering another round of showers and thunderstorms. Another weak frontal boundary will move across the area following the passage of this upper wave, which may give much of the area a break from precipitation Friday. Another upper wave is expected to traverse the area over the weekend bringing additional shower and storm chances. Right now, it looks like Saturday night may be the most favored time frame for precipitation over the weekend. Another cold front will follow this wave Sunday, with a second reinforcing front possibly arriving Monday night. A pattern change is then likely to develop next week bringing a respite to the daily storm chances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 VFR conditions will prevail most of the period, with exception of lower ceilings surging north out of Texas early this morning, which will likely bring a period of MVFR conditions to KMLC. Gusty south winds will increase this morning in advance of a cold front, which will move into part of northeast OK late this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are probable along the front by 00z, but uncertainty remains high with coverage. For the time being, will maintain a PROB30 at all NE OK and NW AR sites from 00-06z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 89 63 76 63 / 20 40 50 50 FSM 89 70 82 68 / 40 40 80 80 MLC 87 69 80 65 / 20 30 70 70 BVO 89 59 77 58 / 10 20 40 30 FYV 86 64 76 62 / 40 60 80 70 BYV 87 63 77 62 / 40 60 80 70 MKO 87 65 77 63 / 20 30 70 70 MIO 86 59 74 61 / 50 50 60 50 F10 87 64 75 63 / 20 20 70 70 HHW 87 71 83 67 / 30 20 70 70 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...14