112
FXUS64 KTSA 231841
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
141 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

A mixture of clouds and sun will prevail through the remainder of
the afternoon. Highs will max out in the mid 80s. As we progress
later in the afternoon and into the overnight hours the chance of
storms will increase as a weak upper level feature passes by. The
probability of storms is relatively modest at 15-40% for most
areas due to a capping inversion aloft and minimal low level
forcing. But if storms can get going they could very easily
become severe. The two most likely cases for initiation are 1.)
along the dry line in western OK and 2.) deeper into the warm
sector in southeast OK. Accordingly, the best chance of storms
will be along the western edge of the CWA and southeast OK up
through west- central AR. As of now, most models kill the storms
before they impact much of northeast OK and northwest AR, but its
possible stronger storms move into these areas as well (15-25%
chance). The most likely hazard for storms today will be hail and
wind. Lingering storms are expected to trend down towards the
second half of the night. Low temperatures will be mild and mostly
in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

With a warm and humid airmass in place, plentiful moisture and
instability will be present Friday morning. Meanwhile, a weak
surface cold front will move through a sheared environment,
increasing forced ascent. CAM guidance has mostly shown weak
storms developing along the front during the morning, with more
substantial activity in the afternoon or evening when the front is
into southeast OK/west- central AR. With that said, considerable
uncertainty remains with respect to how quickly the cold front
advances, and it is possible that storms could form over a greater
portion of the area if the front is a bit slower. Either way, any
storms that do develop, but especially during the afternoon or
evening, would have the potential of becoming severe. Once again,
hail and wind would be the most likely storm threats.

The bigger threat, however, will come Saturday as many severe
weather ingredients will come together at the right time and in the
right way. Extreme instability with MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/Kg,
very strong speed and directional wind shear, good upper level
divergence, and a surface forcing mechanism (cold front) will all be
present. Storms will form along the front as it moves in later
Saturday. In such an environment, these storms will most likely
become severe, some significantly severe. With low LCLs and good
SRH, tornado development will be possible, especially as the LLJ
increases towards sunset. This will be true with the initial
discrete cells, but also from a QLCS perspective as storms become
linear later on. The high CAPE and dry midlevels will also support
large to very large hail and damaging winds. Additionally, CAMs
suggest that areas of heavy rainfall will occur, so flash flooding
will also be a threat. Saturday will be a day to be especially weather
aware! In terms of timing, late afternoon or evening appears to
be the main window across Oklahoma, with evening or early
overnight hours for Arkansas.

A few storms could linger into Sunday, but overall it will be a
welcome break from the action. Sunday and Monday will both be warm
and mostly dry with highs in the 80s to near 90F in some spots. A
large area of high pressure will build west of the region into next
week, inducing northwest flow. Ensemble guidance is in relatively
good agreement that daily nocturnal rain chances will develop as
MCSs dive into the area. Confidence is relatively high in this
general idea but the details of these MCSs are notoriously hard
to predict. The frequent storm activity will keep high
temperatures from warming too much, mostly in the mid 80s, with
lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Mix of VFR to MVFR conditions ongoing across the local region and
this is likely to remain the case through the afternoon as
ceilings persist but slowly rise. Scattered showers are also
likely to persist with a few thunderstorms possible, however
chances remain low for impacts at any specific terminal.
Additional storms will attempt to spread into and / or across the
forecast area this evening and overnight. Coverage and duration of
these storms remains uncertain and forecasts will attempt to show
the low potential. Otherwise expect MVFR ceilings to again develop
and expand late tonight through tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  85  63  88 /  30  20  10  20
FSM   70  87  70  90 /  50  30  30  10
MLC   71  87  67  88 /  30  20  20  20
BVO   67  83  55  87 /  30  20  10  20
FYV   68  83  61  86 /  40  30  30  10
BYV   67  83  62  86 /  30  30  30  10
MKO   68  84  64  87 /  30  30  20  20
MIO   68  82  59  86 /  20  40  10  20
F10   68  85  63  87 /  30  20  20  20
HHW   68  86  68  87 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07