672
FXUS64 KTSA 131933
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
233 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Hot and humid conditions have arrived, with a few spots reporting
HI of 100-102. Frontal boundary continues to push through
northern/central KS, where sfc temps have reached 100-105. Expect
convection to expand along this boundary through the afternoon
and eventually propagate southward time. Overall potential for
this to reach northeast OK remains fairly low, but non-zero.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Weakening frontal boundary is forecast to eventually push into
far northeast OK and northwest AR Friday afternoon. Higher dew
points are likely to pool near the frontal zone, with heat indices
reaching 100-105 through a large portion of northeast OK. The
enhanced moisture could also result in an isolated storm or two
Friday afternoon/evening. By Saturday the front will have
basically washed out with a bit lower dew points keeping HI values
down a few degrees.

A shortwave moving across the Central Plains late Saturday into
Sunday will enhance storm coverage to our north during that
period, with a few potentially drifting into far northern areas.
Once this moves east, deeper moisture should surge north as the
upper ridge moves east. At least isolated afternoon and evening a
few degrees storms expected along with few degrees of cooling, but
with higher humidity. Ridge is expected to expand back to the
west later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period for all
sites. Other than some afternoon cumulus, there is a very low
chance of a shower or thunderstorm in NE OK later this evening.
However, did not mention in TAFs due to low probability of
occurring. Either way, thunderstorm cloud debris will probably
move into the area this evening & early overnight... providing FEW
to SCT mid/ high level clouds. Breezy SW winds this afternoon
become light this evening & overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  96  71  95 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   69  96  74  98 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   68  94  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   69  94  69  95 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   67  93  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   68  92  71  93 /  10  20  20  10
MKO   68  94  71  94 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   70  91  71  93 /  20  20  20  10
F10   68  94  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   65  92  68  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...43