976
FXUS64 KTSA 121723
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1223 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Current temperatures running between 2 to 4 degrees warmer than
this time yesterday in many areas. With mostly sunny skies, highs
expected to climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees this
afternoon. Current forecast on track with no significant changes
anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Quiet weather conditions today as sfc ridge axis gradually moves
away from the region. Mostly sunny skies and high temps a few
degrees warmer than Tuesday are forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Upper ridge continues to strengthen across the southern Plains on
Thursday with temps continuing the warming trend. A stronger wave
passing across the northern Plains will push a cold front
southward into southern KS by Thursday evening with isolated to
scattered storms likely along this boundary. Guidance continues in
good agreement that these storms will struggle to make much
southward progress through Friday morning but low chances may
eventually be warranted for areas near the Oklahoma Kansas border.

The boundary remains more defined north and east of the forecast
area through Friday and there may continue to be low storm chances
on the periphery of the local forecast area. Thereafter, focus
will be on the wave forecast to eject across the central CONUS
Saturday through early Sunday. The latest trend with this wave is
slightly stronger and more southward and warrants low thunderstorm
chances across NE OK as it passes. Temperatures well above normal
and expected dewpoints at or above most guidance will resultant
in several days of early season heat stress as wet bulb globe
temps rise into the mid - upper 80s area wide.

Upper ridges builds into the SE CONUS by Sunday with a fetch of
tropical moisture quickly spreading northward in the region. This
should allow for slightly cooler temps and isolated to scattered
precip chances. The reprieve from the above normal temps will
likely be short as ridging aloft again strengthens across the
region by mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Scattered CU expected this afternoon as strong diurnal heating continues.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.
Light and variable winds are forecast through tonight, becoming
light from the south Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  94  72  95 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   67  94  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   66  91  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   66  93  69  94 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   64  91  67  94 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   64  91  67  93 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   67  91  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   66  90  69  92 /   0   0  10  10
F10   67  91  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   66  90  67  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...12