Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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746 FXUS64 KTSA 120818 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 318 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Quiet weather conditions today as sfc ridge axis gradually moves away from the region. Mostly sunny skies and high temps a few degrees warmer than Tuesday are forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Upper ridge continues to strengthen across the southern Plains on Thursday with temps continuing the warming trend. A stronger wave passing across the northern Plains will push a cold front southward into southern KS by Thursday evening with isolated to scattered storms likely along this boundary. Guidance continues in good agreement that these storms will struggle to make much southward progress through Friday morning but low chances may eventually be warranted for areas near the Oklahoma Kansas border. The boundary remains more defined north and east of the forecast area through Friday and there may continue to be low storm chances on the periphery of the local forecast area. Thereafter, focus will be on the wave forecast to eject across the central CONUS Saturday through early Sunday. The latest trend with this wave is slightly stronger and more southward and warrants low thunderstorm chances across NE OK as it passes. Temperatures well above normal and expected dewpoints at or above most guidance will resultant in several days of early season heat stress as wet bulb globe temps rise into the mid - upper 80s area wide. Upper ridges builds into the SE CONUS by Sunday with a fetch of tropical moisture quickly spreading northward in the region. This should allow for slightly cooler temps and isolated to scattered precip chances. The reprieve from the above normal temps will likely be short as ridging aloft again strengthens across the region by mid to late next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Few to scattered high clouds and light winds should persist through tonight over the CWA. The exception to this will be across far Northwest Arkansas where some patchy areas of LIFR visibility have begun to develop. This will remain possible into the morning hours Wednesday. During the day Wednesday...high clouds are forecast to exit with scattered diurnal mid clouds developing for the afternoon hours. Winds for Wednesday are forecast to return out of the south for most locations. Other than the potential reduced visibility in far Northwest Arkansas tonight...VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 90 69 94 72 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 90 67 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 89 66 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 89 66 93 69 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 88 64 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 87 64 91 67 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 88 67 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 87 66 90 69 / 0 0 0 10 F10 87 67 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 87 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...20