771
FXUS64 KTSA 091903
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
203 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Regional surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from
north of Fort Smith and extending to north of McAlester, and this
feature also shows up well in vis satellite. Airmass along and
south of the boundary is seasonably unstable, but weak convergence
along the boundary and relatively warm mid level temps have kept
any storm development limited thus far. A mid level wave moving
southeast across Kansas may provide forcing to overcome these
limitations into this evening, and thus will see isolated to
scattered storms eventually develop in the frontal zone as it
continues to gradually push south. Weak wind fields will likely
keep the severe threat minimal, though a few downbursts are
possible. Somewhat higher probability of this ill be over west
central AR where slightly stronger mid-level flow reside. Storms
should be slow moving and as such, there will be a local threat of
heavy rainfall. Some storms could linger farther south through at
least part of tonight as the frontal zone drops farther south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A drier and more stable airmass will be with us for a couple of
days early this week, with minimal storms chances Monday. A weak
wave in northwest flow is forecast to move from western OK into
east TX Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps close enough for an
isolated storm threat across parts of eastern OK. Beyond that,
summer starts to creep back in with rising mid-level heights and
sfc winds returning from the south, equaling hotter and humid
conditions through the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A cold front will pass through the area today. For terminals
behind the front in northeast OK, additional precipitation is
unlikely (10% chance). However, CIGs of 2-5 kft will prevail
through the afternoon before lifting and breaking up in the
evening. Winds will be out of the northeast at 5-15 kts.

For northwest AR, scattered showers and storms will persist
through the afternoon before ending. CIGs of 2-5 kft will break up
later this evening. The same can be expected for terminals in
southeast OK, but the timing will be shifted. Storms will develop
later this afternoon and into the evening, with CIGs lifting and
breaking up overnight. Winds will shift to northeast in these
areas as well over the next couple of hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  85  61  87 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   65  86  63  86 /  40   0   0  10
MLC   65  84  62  85 /  30  10   0  10
BVO   56  84  57  86 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   57  83  58  84 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   55  80  56  82 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   61  83  61  83 /  30   0   0  10
MIO   54  81  56  83 /  10   0   0   0
F10   62  82  61  83 /  30   0   0  20
HHW   67  82  63  83 /  30  20   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...06