538
FXUS64 KTSA 091432
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
932 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 924 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A cold front is currently pushing into northeast OK. Behind the
front, much cooler and drier air is filtering into the area. These
areas will mostly remain in the 70s for the remainder of the day,
with CAMs continuing to show persistent low cloud cover.

West and south of the front temperatures are much warmer and more
humid. These areas will see high temperatures in the 80s to 90s
with even higher heat indices. Showers and thunderstorms are
beginning to develop along the front. In general, this should
continue as it slowly moves southeast into the afternoon. Storms
are expected to remain sub severe, though there is a marginal
(5%) possibility of an isolated severe storm. Overall the lack of
widespread coverage should keep the risk of flash flooding low as
well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The frontal boundary is forecast to be across far Southeast
Oklahoma and exiting Northwest Arkansas this evening and then
finally exiting Southeast Oklahoma overnight tonight. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue with the front into the
overnight hours. Instability weakens and becomes mainly elevated
through the evening hours and as such severe potentials should
also decrease this evening. The 850-mb frontal boundary is
forecast to sag south of the Red River Monday morning with precip
chances exiting by Monday afternoon.

Cooler conditions...high temps in the 80s...continue Monday over
the CWA in the wake of the departing frontal boundary and should
continue into Tuesday as another weak area of low pressure slides
southeast through the Southern Plains. Additional shower and
thunderstorm chances return Tuesday with this shortwave and look
to exit Wednesday. The greater precip potential looks to be
Tuesday night into Wednesday across Southeast Oklahoma as the wave
moves through the region. Instability is forecast to be marginal
Tuesday/Wednesday and severe weather is not currently anticipated
for the CWA.

Once the shortwave exits mid week...mid level heights are forecast
to rise with a ridge of high pressure late week. In response...a
warming trend and more humid conditions are forecast Thursday into
the weekend. Extended model solutions indicate a shortwave moving
through the Plains late weekend...which may bring a return of
precip chances to the CWA...depending on the track of the low. As
of this forecast package...will hold off on mentionable PoPs for
now but is some thing to keep an eye on for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Ongoing scattered showers and isolated storms across NW AR taper
off in coverage with westward extent and this pattern is likely to
prevail through the morning. Cold front currently advancing
through NE OK will continue slowly southward and be a focus for
renewed storm develop from early afternoon through mid evening.
Overall coverage of additional storms continues to appear rather
low with western AR being nearer the zone of potentially higher
afternoon coverage. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings develop north of the
front and persist into the evening with eventual rise into VFR
levels from north to south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  63  84  62 /  30  10   0   0
FSM   90  65  85  64 /  40  50  10   0
MLC   91  67  83  64 /  40  40  20  10
BVO   79  58  84  59 /  30  10   0   0
FYV   83  59  83  58 /  50  20   0   0
BYV   78  57  80  58 /  60  20   0   0
MKO   86  63  84  63 /  40  20   0   0
MIO   76  58  81  57 /  60  10   0   0
F10   87  64  82  63 /  30  20  20   0
HHW   93  70  81  65 /  20  30  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07