871
FXUS64 KTSA 081928
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
228 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A few showers occurring across NE OK this afternoon ahead
of a cold front that is currently across S KS. Very warm and
humid afternoon in progress with low to mid 90s across much of E
OK and sfc dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.

Shower and storm chances will mainly remain across the north
overnight in the vicinity of the boundary as an upper wave moves
across KS. Boundary will get a push into the area later
tonight, but level of convective reinforcement will likely
determine how far south it gets into the area tonight. At this
time will keep lower end PoPs roughly along and north of highway
412.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Cold front to make its way through the area Sunday, with cooler
temps and drier air filtering in behind the boundary. Slightly
higher shower and thunder chances will translate south with
boundary trough the day, but will keep low PoPs approximately i-40
and south Sunday night. Sfc ridge axis settles across the midwest
early next week which will keep the drier air across the area for
a few days, while keeping the better rain chances west and
southwest of the area. Another upper wave move across the area
Tuesday into Wednesday, and will include lower end PoPs as low
level moisture increases on southerly winds ahead of this
feature. Dry, but warmer conditions are expected for the latter
portion of the week as upper ridging appears sufficient enough to
keep showers and storms north of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Scattered mid and upper level clouds as well as a few showers will
continue through the afternoon and evening, but the odds of
precipitation at any given terminal are 10% or less. Winds will be
breezy out of the south to southwest through this evening as well.

Overnight tonight, a line of storms is expected to approach
northeast OK along a boundary. As the boundary moves through a
period of gusty northwest winds will occur for the northeast OK
terminals before winds become lighter and out of the northeast.
Additionally, a few showers and thunderstorms will form near the
boundary. CIGs will develop behind it and come down to 2-3 kft.
This boundary may just be reaching the terminals in northwest AR
by 17-18Z tomorrow. For terminals south of the boundary, breezy
south to southwest winds will continue with scattered mid and high
clouds and low rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  85  63  84 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   74  93  67  86 /  10  30  20  10
MLC   73  92  66  83 /  10  30  30  30
BVO   69  82  58  83 /  30  30  10  10
FYV   71  87  59  83 /  20  40  10  10
BYV   69  80  58  81 /  40  40  10  10
MKO   73  88  65  82 /  10  40  20  10
MIO   69  79  58  81 /  50  50  10  10
F10   72  88  65  82 /  10  30  20  20
HHW   72  90  69  82 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...06