045
FXUS64 KTSA 130522
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1222 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 728 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The going forecast remains on track. Gradually increasing
dewpoints will lead to warmer overnight lows tonight compared to
the previous few nights. Our area remains on the eastern periphery
of influence from a large upper high over the Southwest,
maintaining hot and dry weather for the time being.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Quiet weather tonight, with light south wind and higher dew
points resulting in warmer overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Upper ridge over the Four Corners will expand into the Southern
PLains Thursday, with hotter and more humid airmass spreading
north. A Northern stream wave will push a cold front south,
eventually reaching central KS by late Thursday, with scattered
storms developing along the boundary, with a non-zero chance of
some making a run at northeast OK. General consensus among
guidance remains for these storms to largely fade before making
it this far south, and as such the forecast for Thursday night
into Friday remains dry.

The above mentioned boundary will remain just to our northeast
through Friday, possibly keeping low storm chances near our
forecast area for both Friday and Saturday. Otherwise hot and
humid conditions will continue. A stronger wave then moves into
the Central Plains Saturday night with low storm chances
spreading into northeast OK late Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Ridge axis will then shift far enough east to allow
deeper subtropical moisture to move north out of the Gulf, with
low precip chances returning early next week, along with a slight
break in the heat for a day or two.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Overnight tonight mostly clear skies and light winds will remain
common across the CWA. During the day Thursday few to scattered
mid and high clouds are forecast with winds becoming south to
southwesterly. High clouds look to increase across the northern
half of the CWA Thursday evening in response to potential
convective development along a frontal boundary in Kansas. At
this time any precip should remain north/northwest of Eastern
Oklahoma TAF sites. VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  96  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   69  96  72  98 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   67  93  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   68  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   67  93  69  93 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   67  93  69  93 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   69  93  71  94 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   68  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
F10   67  93  69  93 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   67  92  67  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...20