Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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134 FXUS64 KTSA 082341 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 641 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A few showers occurring across NE OK this afternoon ahead of a cold front that is currently across S KS. Very warm and humid afternoon in progress with low to mid 90s across much of E OK and sfc dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Shower and storm chances will mainly remain across the north overnight in the vicinity of the boundary as an upper wave moves across KS. Boundary will get a push into the area later tonight, but level of convective reinforcement will likely determine how far south it gets into the area tonight. At this time will keep lower end PoPs roughly along and north of highway 412. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Cold front to make its way through the area Sunday, with cooler temps and drier air filtering in behind the boundary. Slightly higher shower and thunder chances will translate south with boundary trough the day, but will keep low PoPs approximately i-40 and south Sunday night. Sfc ridge axis settles across the midwest early next week which will keep the drier air across the area for a few days, while keeping the better rain chances west and southwest of the area. Another upper wave move across the area Tuesday into Wednesday, and will include lower end PoPs as low level moisture increases on southerly winds ahead of this feature. Dry, but warmer conditions are expected for the latter portion of the week as upper ridging appears sufficient enough to keep showers and storms north of the forecast area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is thunderstorm potential at most of the sites. There is low confidence in on- station impacts at any of the terminals, whether it be with storms later tonight that are expected to mainly skirt the Kansas and Missouri borders or with additional development forecast along the front after daybreak and into the afternoon hours. Will carry a VCTS mention at all sites except TUL/RVS - although the chance of thunderstorms even there is nonzero. Will continue with the PROB30 mentions at the far NW AR sites around sunrise given a more southeastward movement/development of storms in western Missouri featured by CAMs. Behind the front, expect a period of MVFR ceilings and a shift to a north to northeast wind direction. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 74 85 63 84 / 20 20 10 10 FSM 74 93 67 86 / 10 30 20 10 MLC 73 92 66 83 / 10 30 30 30 BVO 69 82 58 83 / 30 30 10 10 FYV 71 87 59 83 / 20 40 10 10 BYV 69 80 58 81 / 40 40 10 10 MKO 73 88 65 82 / 10 40 20 10 MIO 69 79 58 81 / 50 50 10 10 F10 72 88 65 82 / 10 30 20 20 HHW 72 90 69 82 / 0 20 20 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...22