481
FXUS64 KTSA 081652
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1152 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A subtle upper level feature has kicked off scattered showers and
storms this morning, which are continuing to develop and move
east. These storms will likely diminish in coverage and intensity
into the afternoon, but there is a non-zero chance of a very
isolated storm basically at any time and anywhere through the
afternoon.

Even with widespread clouds, warm and moist advection continues
due to a low pressure area to the north and associated southerly
wind. High temperatures will reach into the 90s today with heat
indices into the low 100s. It appears at this time we will be just
shy of heat advisory criteria, but this will be watched closely.
Showers and storms will trend up tonight as the next upper level
feature approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A second mid level shortwave is progged to move across Southern
Kansas again tonight which will help give a push to the
surface/frontal boundary into the CWA late tonight/Sunday morning.
Shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast into Northeast
Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas overnight into Sunday morning
as a MCS develops with the shortwave and frontogenetic forcing
extends southward into the region. Limited severe potentials are
forecast tonight into Sunday with locally damaging wind and large
hail the main threats. Again...with the amount of moisture in
place...locally heavy rainfall could also become a concern into
Sunday.

During the day Sunday...the frontal boundary is forecast to sag
southward through the CWA with the shortwave progged to exit the
region Sunday afternoon and a secondary upper level trof axis
dropping southeast through the Plains Sunday evening/night. In
response...shower and thunderstorm chances spread southward with
the movement of the front Sunday and remain possible Sunday night
into Monday morning before the upper level trof exits. A limited
severe potential looks to be main focused along/near the boundary
Sunday.

Cooler conditions filter into the region behind the frontal
boundary with highs in the 80s in Northeast Oklahoma Sunday and
upper 70s/lower 80s for the CWA Monday/Tuesday. Shower and
thunderstorm chances remain over the western half of the CWA
Monday and expand back over the CWA into Tuesday with another
shortwave moving southeast through the Southern Plains. Latest
model solutions differ on the time of departure for this
shortwave with the ECMWF holding onto a mid level low pressure
into Wednesday. For now will keep a slight chance PoP for
Wednesday morning and then taper off precip chances. Once this
wave exits...warmer and more humid conditions are forecast to
spread back into the CWA at the end of the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Scattered mid and upper level clouds as well as a few showers will
continue through the afternoon and evening, but the odds of
precipitation at any given terminal are 10% or less. Winds will be
breezy out of the south to southwest through this evening as well.

Overnight tonight, a line of storms is expected to approach
northeast OK along a boundary. As the boundary moves through a
period of gusty northwest winds will occur for the northeast OK
terminals before winds become lighter and out of the northeast.
Additionally, a few showers and thunderstorms will form near the
boundary. CIGs will develop behind it and come down to 2-3 kft.
This boundary may just be reaching the terminals in northwest AR
by 17-18Z tomorrow. For terminals south of the boundary, breezy
south to southwest winds will continue with scattered mid and high
clouds and low rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  74  86  64 /  20  20  30  20
FSM   96  74  90  67 /  30  10  30  30
MLC   94  73  91  67 /  20  10  20  30
BVO   95  70  82  59 /  20  40  30  20
FYV   91  71  85  60 /  30  20  40  20
BYV   90  70  80  60 /  30  40  50  20
MKO   95  74  88  65 /  30  10  40  30
MIO   91  70  80  60 /  20  50  50  20
F10   94  73  88  66 /  30  10  30  30
HHW   93  72  93  70 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...06