340
FXUS64 KTSA 100509
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1209 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Regional surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from
north of Fort Smith and extending to north of McAlester, and this
feature also shows up well in vis satellite. Airmass along and
south of the boundary is seasonably unstable, but weak convergence
along the boundary and relatively warm mid level temps have kept
any storm development limited thus far. A mid level wave moving
southeast across Kansas may provide forcing to overcome these
limitations into this evening, and thus will see isolated to
scattered storms eventually develop in the frontal zone as it
continues to gradually push south. Weak wind fields will likely
keep the severe threat minimal, though a few downbursts are
possible. Somewhat higher probability of this ill be over west
central AR where slightly stronger mid-level flow reside. Storms
should be slow moving and as such, there will be a local threat of
heavy rainfall. Some storms could linger farther south through at
least part of tonight as the frontal zone drops farther south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A drier and more stable airmass will be with us for a couple of
days early this week, with minimal storms chances Monday. A weak
wave in northwest flow is forecast to move from western OK into
east TX Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps close enough for an
isolated storm threat across parts of eastern OK. Beyond that,
summer starts to creep back in with rising mid-level heights and
sfc winds returning from the south, equaling hotter and humid
conditions through the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Corridor of low VFR to periodic MVFR ceilings remains across SE OK
into west central AR and is expected to remain in this generally
vicinity through the overnight hours. Isolated ongoing convection
across SE OK is expected to remain south of terminals. Low clouds
steadily erode or move south of KMLC/KFSM by mid morning with VFR
conditions then prevailing area wide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  87  65  89 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   63  86  65  90 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   62  85  64  87 /   0  10  20  10
BVO   57  86  62  89 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   58  84  61  87 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   56  82  60  86 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   61  83  63  86 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   56  83  61  86 /   0   0  10  10
F10   61  83  63  86 /   0  20  20  10
HHW   63  83  64  85 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07