844
FXUS64 KTSA 270728
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
228 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Surface high pressure builds over the region today, making for a
nice Memorial Day areawide. Skies will be clear, winds will be
light, and temperatures will be warm as most locations warm into
the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon. No rain or storms in
the forecast for today for a welcome break to the unsettled
pattern that has been endured through much of May.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

A pattern change to more northwesterly flow aloft is still on
track through the middle part of the week as mid level ridging
expands into the western CONUS. This will bring chances for
multiple thunderstorms complexes to impact the area through
Thursday. The initial wave on Monday night into Tuesday could
mainly stay focused west of the forecast area across central
Oklahoma, with a gradual spread eastward for Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

The western ridge breaks down somewhat toward the latter part of
the week with more zonal to southwesterly flow aloft spreading
back over the Plains. Several disturbances look to move through
the area, with near daily thunderstorm chances continuing into the
weekend as the warm, moist airmass remains in place. Some
semblance of severe weather threat will likely set up, along with
the threat of heavy rainfall. Some guidance indicates a frontal
boundary will move into the area late next weekend and possibly
provide a more focused severe threat, but many differences exist
this far out for any definitive area that might see a higher end
severe threat. Temperatures through the period will depend on the
evolution of thunderstorms every night, but will mainly stay near
seasonal averages for this time of year.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Patchy fog will be possible overnight at NW AR TAF sites and at KBVO.
Low level winds should provide enough mixing to keep fog from becoming
dense, but will continue to monitor short term trends. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected with light north winds becoming more northeasterly
during the day as weak high pressure builds over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  63  84  62 /   0  10  10  30
FSM   91  65  87  64 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   91  64  85  64 /   0  10  20  40
BVO   87  59  84  57 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   86  60  85  59 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   84  60  82  58 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   87  64  83  62 /   0  10  10  30
MIO   84  60  82  57 /   0  10   0  10
F10   89  63  82  62 /   0  10  20  40
HHW   91  65  82  65 /   0  20  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...12