Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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650 FXUS64 KTSA 250207 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 907 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 902 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Several updates already sent have reflected removing counties from the SVR watch and adjusting PoPs accordingly as the cold front passed. Will continue to issue updates in that same vein this evening, though at this time overnight temperatures and rest of first period elements outside of PoPs/thunder look good and will be left as is. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Warm sector quickly recovers during the day Saturday with data remaining consistent in a broad fetch of a strongly unstable and deeply sheared airmass overspreading much of the Southern Plains by late afternoon. The approaching shortwave trough and associated wind fields are all within the classic configuration supporting a significant severe weather event from late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. The higher storm coverage will focus north of the local region along the sfc low track and warm frontal zone. Further south along the dryline through OK storm coverage remains more uncertain, however confidence remains high in at least isolated to scattered supercells initiating along the dryline through central OK and spreading into E OK during the evening hours. The background environment supports significant severe weather potential and weather conditions should be followed closely from trusted weather sources Saturday evening into the overnight hours. The cold front associated with the passing wave lags to the west and does not completely clear western AR until Sunday afternoon. The bulk of guidance keeps the frontal passage dry with only low chances of storms developing along the boundary during the day Sunday. This period will continue to monitored for higher storm potential but at this time it appears Sunday is a trend downward in the severe potential. A brief dry period Monday into Tuesday as sfc high pressure prevails. The flow aloft becomes northwesterly through the Plains by mid week and will eventually support repeated rounds of thunderstorm complexes moving through the region Wednesday into Friday. By late week the pattern likely returns to more southwesterly flow aloft and unsettled and stormy conditions persist. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A cold front is progressing across E OK this afternoon and will bring storm chances to the TAFs across W AR and SE OK. Where chances are higher, TEMPOs for MVFR conditions were maintained during the favored time windows. The front never really clears the W AR sites tonight, and MOS guidance shows potential for fog at those sites late tonight into Saturday morning. After any fog that develops lifts, VFR conditions will prevail thru the end of the forecast. Storm chances will increase again for the E OK sites just beyond the scope of this forecast. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 60 88 72 90 / 10 0 40 0 FSM 68 90 73 90 / 40 0 20 20 MLC 65 88 72 91 / 60 0 20 10 BVO 53 87 69 88 / 10 0 40 0 FYV 60 86 69 87 / 40 0 30 20 BYV 60 86 70 87 / 40 0 30 20 MKO 62 86 72 89 / 30 0 30 10 MIO 57 85 69 86 / 10 0 50 20 F10 61 87 72 90 / 10 0 40 0 HHW 67 87 72 89 / 60 0 20 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...30