Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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377 FXUS64 KTSA 031124 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 624 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The main focus for today will be an organizing MCS that is currently across southwest Kansas. CAM`s are in reasonably good agreement that this storm complex will track southeast into northeast Oklahoma later this morning, and will maintain or even increase in intensity through the day as it advances southeast through much of our forecast area. Damaging winds will be the main severe weather threat with this complex. Scattered showers and storms may also develop ahead of the complex this morning, and some hail potential will exist with this activity. Locally heavy rainfall amounts will also be possible today. Temperatures today are problematic, but think most places should top out in the 80-85 degree range, with southern areas seeing their highs prior to the arrival of the storm complex. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Convective chances tonight behind today`s complex are highly uncertain, so have stuck with the NBM pops for now. Much of Tuesday will likely be dry, but storm chances will ramp up Tuesday evening and overnight as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the north. Severe storms and locally heavy rainfall appear likely again at this time. A relatively dry period will exist behind this frontal boundary Wednesday through Friday before mainly overnight and morning storm chances increase again by the weekend as high plains convection tracks southeast each night in the northwest flow pattern aloft. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The main change to the forecast was to adjust TAFs for the anticipated arrival of an MCS which is expected to sweep across the region later today per more recent model data. TEMPOs were used to time the arrival, with gusty winds and lower vsbys. Also used VCTS mention to cover the spotty warm advection showers and storms early this morning. Storms should be done by 00Z this evening, though some data has storms redeveloping late tonight across the region. Given the uncertainty near the tail end of the forecast, used PROB30 groups to cover that potential. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 82 69 86 68 / 90 40 20 60 FSM 84 71 87 70 / 80 50 20 70 MLC 83 70 86 69 / 80 50 10 60 BVO 81 66 85 66 / 90 50 20 60 FYV 81 67 84 66 / 70 40 30 70 BYV 80 66 84 66 / 70 40 30 70 MKO 80 69 86 69 / 80 40 10 70 MIO 80 67 84 66 / 80 50 30 70 F10 82 69 86 68 / 70 50 10 70 HHW 84 69 86 70 / 60 50 10 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...30