Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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944 FXUS64 KTSA 312334 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 634 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Mid level shortwave moving across northeast OK this afternoon, with focus of showers and thunderstorms expected to be mainly on the east side of the circulation. Coverage of storms should increase some over the next few hours, but nothing in the way of organized severe weather is expected. Localized heavy rain is a possibility given the high PWAT values in place. As the low moves off to the east this evening, expect a decrease in coverage from west to east, with most of not all precip ending by 06z. Temps have remained relatively cool throughout today with light winds, lending some potential to fog development later tonight. Storms forming currently over the Rocky Mountain Front should organize to some degree and roll across the high plains, but he environment this far east not favorable for this to have much impact on our weather into tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A relatively quiet day in the recent unsettled pattern anticipated Saturday, though there is some suggestion in model data of a weak remnant circulation associated with any more organized clusters of storms maintained overnight tonight, could drift over the region. Most CAM solutions do develop at least isolated storms across parts of the area, but coverage would likely remain quite limited. A somewhat higher chance of a storm complex maintaining into eastern OK Sunday morning continues to be suggested, albeit in a weakening state. The unsettled pattern continues early next week, with an overall trend toward hotter and more humid conditions. Some potential continues for a few more days for storm complexes to organize to the west and move into the area, with Sunday night into Monday still looking like the period of highest probability at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Some MVFR/IFR ceilings persist at the northwest Arkansas sites at this time, but most sites should become VFR for much of this evening. Later tonight, fog/stratus development is expected, with MVFR or lower conditions expected into Saturday morning. Conditions will improve during the day Saturday, with a return to VFR conditions at all sites by afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 63 85 67 87 / 10 10 10 30 FSM 66 86 68 88 / 40 10 10 30 MLC 64 85 67 86 / 10 20 10 30 BVO 59 83 63 86 / 10 10 10 30 FYV 62 83 63 86 / 40 10 10 30 BYV 63 82 63 87 / 60 10 10 30 MKO 63 83 67 84 / 10 10 10 30 MIO 62 82 63 84 / 20 10 10 30 F10 62 83 66 84 / 10 20 10 30 HHW 65 83 68 84 / 10 20 10 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...05