Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
161 FXUS64 KTSA 240225 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 925 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 924 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Made a few adjustments to PoPs overnight, mainly to reflect lower coverage through 12z. Severe storm currently across SW OK may try to move east, and additional development along any outflow may impact SE OK after 06z Will keep low chance PoPs across far SE OK in that time period. Rest of the area should remain dry overnight, but will keep slight chance in late tonight across far NE OK with development along an approaching cold front. Current overnight temps look reasonable at this time, so will leave those and remaining first period elements as they are. Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Thursday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 With a warm and humid airmass in place, plentiful moisture and instability will be present Friday morning. Meanwhile, a weak surface cold front will move through a sheared environment, increasing forced ascent. CAM guidance has mostly shown weak storms developing along the front during the morning, with more substantial activity in the afternoon or evening when the front is into southeast OK/west- central AR. With that said, considerable uncertainty remains with respect to how quickly the cold front advances, and it is possible that storms could form over a greater portion of the area if the front is a bit slower. Either way, any storms that do develop, but especially during the afternoon or evening, would have the potential of becoming severe. Once again, hail and wind would be the most likely storm threats. The bigger threat, however, will come Saturday as many severe weather ingredients will come together at the right time and in the right way. Extreme instability with MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/Kg, very strong speed and directional wind shear, good upper level divergence, and a surface forcing mechanism (cold front) will all be present. Storms will form along the front as it moves in later Saturday. In such an environment, these storms will most likely become severe, some significantly severe. With low LCLs and good SRH, tornado development will be possible, especially as the LLJ increases towards sunset. This will be true with the initial discrete cells, but also from a QLCS perspective as storms become linear later on. The high CAPE and dry midlevels will also support large to very large hail and damaging winds. Additionally, CAMs suggest that areas of heavy rainfall will occur, so flash flooding will also be a threat. Saturday will be a day to be especially weather aware! In terms of timing, late afternoon or evening appears to be the main window across Oklahoma, with evening or early overnight hours for Arkansas. A few storms could linger into Sunday, but overall it will be a welcome break from the action. Sunday and Monday will both be warm and mostly dry with highs in the 80s to near 90F in some spots. A large area of high pressure will build west of the region into next week, inducing northwest flow. Ensemble guidance is in relatively good agreement that daily nocturnal rain chances will develop as MCSs dive into the area. Confidence is relatively high in this general idea but the details of these MCSs are notoriously hard to predict. The frequent storm activity will keep high temperatures from warming too much, mostly in the mid 80s, with lows in the mid 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 MVFR cigs across NE OK currently should trend toward VFR, as it is elsewhere. VFR will prevail for much of tonight before MVFR cigs move in early Friday morning. Expect a return to VFR conditions by midday. Greatest chance for storms will be with front aft 21Z thru the end of this forecast. A VCTS and PROB30 mention was used at all sites during this time frame. I did leave a VCTS mention at KMLC for late evening and overnight with outside chance of storms there. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 69 85 63 88 / 10 20 10 20 FSM 70 87 70 90 / 20 30 30 10 MLC 71 87 67 88 / 20 20 20 20 BVO 67 83 55 87 / 20 20 10 20 FYV 68 83 61 86 / 10 30 30 10 BYV 67 83 62 86 / 20 30 30 10 MKO 68 84 64 87 / 10 30 20 20 MIO 68 82 59 86 / 10 40 10 20 F10 68 85 63 87 / 20 20 20 20 HHW 68 86 68 87 / 30 20 30 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...30