Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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328 FXUS64 KTSA 211552 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1052 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1043 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Warm and breezy conditions ongoing with low level moisture increasing ahead of the cold front which was currently located from central KS through SW OK. Substantial capping noted on regional 12z soundings and will likely remain firmly in place through mid afternoon before height falls begin to spread across the prefrontal region. Trends in recent CAM solutions have decreased potential for prefrontal convection which is more often the case and updated forecast will focus thunderstorm chances more into the late afternoon hours. Focus will quickly become storms along the frontal boundary from E KS into NE OK moving east and developing southward with time. An additional area for convection could be over N TX nearer the dryline / front intersection and these storms would also track eastward with time. Warm sector conditions will support severe weather with initial supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Low level wind fields do increase by evening supporting tornadic potential though storm model should become more linear with time which will complicate the duration and extent of the overall tornadic threat. Updated forecast primarily may minor adjustments to precip chances through the evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Shower and thunderstorm activity will remain possible this evening into the overnight hours along the cold front as it sags south. The greatest convective coverage is likely to remain across far northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. At least some severe weather threat is likely to persist well into the overnight hours. The front will eventually stall out Wednesday somewhere in the vicinity of the Red River. Widespread convective activity is expected in its vicinity, with some severe threat. A flood threat may eventually develop with time across mainly southeast Oklahoma due to repeated rounds of convection. To the north, more scattered elevated convection with a hail threat will be possible. The front will lift north/wash out Thursday as an upper wave approaches the area triggering another round of showers and thunderstorms. Another weak frontal boundary will move across the area following the passage of this upper wave, which may give much of the area a break from precipitation Friday. Another upper wave is expected to traverse the area over the weekend bringing additional shower and storm chances. Right now, it looks like Saturday night may be the most favored time frame for precipitation over the weekend. Another cold front will follow this wave Sunday, with a second reinforcing front possibly arriving Monday night. A pattern change is then likely to develop next week bringing a respite to the daily storm chances. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 For the morning, low clouds spreading north into southeast OK will bring a period of MVFR cigs to KMLC, with lower probability into northeast OK sites from 14-18z. Otherwise gusty south winds continue through afternoon ahead of a cold front. Scattered thunderstorms may develop well ahead of the front from SE OK into NW AR around 21z, but more probable development near the front by around 00Z over NW AR and far NE OK. Evolution of storms late in the forecast period remains rather uncertain, though do expect MVFR ceilings to become more widespread by early Wednesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 89 63 76 63 / 20 20 50 50 FSM 89 70 82 68 / 10 60 80 80 MLC 87 69 80 65 / 10 30 70 70 BVO 89 59 77 58 / 10 10 40 30 FYV 86 64 76 62 / 20 70 80 70 BYV 87 63 77 62 / 20 60 80 70 MKO 87 65 77 63 / 10 40 70 70 MIO 86 59 74 61 / 40 30 60 50 F10 87 64 75 63 / 10 30 70 70 HHW 87 71 83 67 / 20 30 70 70 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...14