Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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984 FXUS64 KTSA 190533 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1233 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 901 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Upper ridging in place and high pressure just off to the east will allow for quiet conditions overnight. Current first period elements are in line with latest trends, therefore no update is planned at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Unseasonably warm and humid conditions are anticipated Sunday into Tuesday in advance of the next cold front set to move through the region on Wednesday. High temperatures each afternoon during that time-frame is expected to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. There will likely be at least a couple of opportunities for showers/storms across the area before the cold front moves through the region mid-week. The first chance will come Sunday evening/night as thunderstorms develop along the dry line to the west Sunday afternoon and spread into northeast Oklahoma and possibly far northwest Arkansas. These storms could initially be strong to severe when they enter the area with a decrease in intensity expected as the storms spread further east. Marginally severe winds and hail would be the concern with the strongest storms. There will be a greater potential for storms late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as a mid-level low moves across the northern/central Plains and pushes a cold front into the region. There is expected to be plentiful instability and increasing deep layer shear for any storms that develop or move into the area to be severe with large hail and damaging winds the main concern. There will also be the potential for tornadoes during this time. The chances of showers/storms does not come to end Wednesday as the cold front moves into northern Texas. Daily shower/storm chances continue right into the weekend as the front returns north as a warm front Thursday and the next storm system approaches Saturday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A brief period of fog is possible at KFYV early this morning, and showers and thunderstorms may affect the northeast Oklahoma sites late Sunday evening. South winds will gust over 20 knots at times Sunday at the northeast Oklahoma sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 90 68 91 73 / 0 40 0 0 FSM 91 69 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 90 70 90 73 / 0 10 0 0 BVO 88 65 90 70 / 0 50 0 10 FYV 88 65 89 70 / 0 10 10 0 BYV 88 65 88 70 / 0 10 10 0 MKO 88 68 89 72 / 0 20 0 0 MIO 88 66 88 70 / 0 30 10 10 F10 88 68 89 73 / 0 20 0 0 HHW 88 68 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...05