Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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636 FXUS64 KTSA 150732 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 232 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Quiet weather is anticipated for the remainder of the overnight hours with mild temperatures and light winds. Today will be another hot day, with high temperatures rising to the low to mid 90s once again. Dew points are not expected to be quite as high as yesterday, mostly in the upper 60s to low 70s. This will still result in afternoon heat indices of 95-102F, which is a few degrees shy of Heat Advisory criteria. High pressure over the area will weaken and retreat eastwards by early evening as a weak shortwave trough glances the area to the north. Due to unfavorable thermal and moisture profiles, most of the area will be dry, but an isolated late afternoon or early evening shower or thunderstorm is possible (10- 20% chance) for portions of northwest Arkansas. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The upper level high will shift eastwards Sunday through Tuesday, settling into the northeast US. Meanwhile a broad and deep trough will settle into the western US, with an inverted trough moving westward over southern Texas. Upper level heights and temperatures will lower as a result of this pattern reconfiguration across the CWA, implying a slight cooling trend into early next week. Additionally, cyclogenesis in the northern Plains will induce gusty southerly winds across the area for several days. Max wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected. These winds will keep dew points elevated due to enhanced moisture advection. With slightly lower temperatures, but still elevated moisture levels, heat indices will continue to approach 95-100F each day. Rain chances will mostly remain minimal through Tuesday, though a few high terrain showers or storms could occur in southeast OK or northwest AR. By next Wednesday, and continuing into the weekend, upper level heights will rebuild over the area with any fronts remaining well to the north. This should imply an increasing temperature trend, with highs back into the mid 90s for many areas. However, with continued moisture advection from the south, a few diurnal showers or storms could still occur, especially Wednesday. But overall the hot and mostly dry weather pattern we`ve seen of late looks to continue. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Southerly winds should become gusty in the 15 to 20 kt range during the afternoon at the NE OK terminals, with gustiness dropping off with sunset. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 95 75 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 97 75 97 74 / 10 10 0 0 MLC 94 73 94 73 / 0 10 0 0 BVO 94 72 94 70 / 0 10 0 0 FYV 92 71 93 69 / 10 10 10 0 BYV 92 71 93 71 / 20 10 10 0 MKO 93 73 93 72 / 0 10 0 0 MIO 93 73 93 73 / 10 10 0 0 F10 93 72 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 93 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...22