586
FXUS65 KTWC 250910
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
210 AM MST Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy to locally windy conditions today and cooler as
a weather system passes by to our north. Warmer Sunday and
Memorial Day with warmer than normal conditions to close out the
month of May.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mid to upper level clouds have been increasing
across the area this mornning but not enough to diminish the
beautiful view of the full moon. These clouds will hang around
thru much of the day before diminishing late this afternoon with
a clear sky likely tonight.

Main weather concern for today is fire weather related as a
weather system passing by to our north increasing pressure
gradient across the area bringing breezy to locally windy
conditions this afternoon. See fire weather section below for
further details. This system will also bring a cooler air mass
with highs this afternoon 2 to 7 degrees cooler than yesterday.
NBM has 70% chance that Tucson (TIA) may not reach 90 degrees.

Sunday: Less wind with highs 3 to 7 degrees warmer than today.

Next week: Dry and warm to close out May. The Santa Cruz ice will
break during the first half of next week with the Tucson airport
recording the first official triple digit high of 2024. The only
question will be which day with Tuesday (63%) having the higher
NBM probabilities versus Monday (17%) and Wednesday (39%).

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/12Z.
SCT to BKN clouds AOA 20k ft MSL thru 26/00z then SKC thru end of
valid pd. SFC winds SE-SW less than 12 kts thru 25/17z then bcmg
WLY/SWLY 12-20 kts with gusts 22-32 kts thru 26/02z. SFC winds aft
26/02z bcmg terrain driven and less than 10 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy to locally winds today with critical fire
weather conditions mainly east of Tucson. A Red Flag Warning has
been posted from 10 am to 9 pm for fire weather zone 152. Minimum
RH values bottoming out in the single digits in valleys with poor
to fair overnight recoveries. Temperatures near typical values
for late May this weekend, with hotter afternoons likely next
week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MST this
  evening for AZZ152.

&&

$$

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