832
FXUS65 KTWC 301000
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
300 AM MST Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will run above normal over the next
seven days as the calendar turns from May to June.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A clear sky prevailed across southern Arizona as a
weak upper level trof passes through the Great Basin. Very little
change in high temperatures as we turn the calendar from May to
June. Will see the typical gusty, heat of the day, winds
developing each day.

The upper air pattern next week will see an upper low meandering
off the Baja coast and building high pressure to our east.
Southerly flow between these two features will slowly increase
moisture over the area to near normal by middle to end of next
week. Will there be enough moisture to kick off high-based
storms? That is uncertain this far out and CPC has removed our
area from leaning wetter than normal in the 8-14 day forecast.
What is certain is that the area will be heating up toward the end
of next week. Most recent NBM probabilities for the 1st 105 high
of 2024 in Tucson next Thu/Fri is in the 30%-35% range. The
high end of the temperature spread in the ECMWF ensembles next
Thu/Fri is hotter versus GEFS/GEPS with small potential of 110 in
Tucson. It`s that time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 31/12Z.
Clear skies/SKC conditions to a FEW clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the
forecast period. SFC wind less than 10 kts and variable in direction
thru 30/18Z and again aft 31/03Z. WLY/NWLY SFC wind at 8-14 kts and
gusts to 14-24 kts between 30/18Z and 31/03Z. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and high temperatures 2-5 degrees
above normal will continue through early next week. Expect min RH
values of 3-8 percent in the lower elevations and 8-15 percent in
the mountains the next 7 days, with poor overnight recoveries
between 20-30 percent in most locations. 20-foot winds will follow
typical diurnal patterns through the weekend, with afternoon/early
evening gustiness due to strong surface heating. Sustained 20-foot
wind speeds will generally be 15 mph or less, except for the
potential for some elevated winds at 15-20 mph Sunday afternoon
east of Tucson.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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