949
FXUS65 KTWC 060859
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
159 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler temperatures today with occasional breezes. A
brief warm up through the most of the weekend. Moisture will
begin to make its way into the region late this weekend with
chances for showers increasing, especially Sunday through Monday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows the trough over central
Arizona which will usher in cooler temperatures. Today`s
temperatures will be sitting 2-4 degrees below seasonal normals. A
little welcome relief compared to the start of March. The trough
will also bring some westerly to northwesterly breezes but not as
strong as yesterday.

A close low will form over Arizona and move towards Baja
California over the weekend. As it does that, temperatures will
warm back up to above normal with Sunday being the warmest. Easterly
to southeasterly winds will pick up on Saturday and Sunday. The
easts wind will be the strongest by Sunday morning because of the
tight pressure gradient and the morning lows will be the warmest
for the weekend. The Gila River Valley will experience the
stronger breezes.

The closed low will inject moisture into the region. The PWAT
values will be rising up to 120% above normal by late Sunday night
and peaking on Monday. A positive sign for rain shower chances
across Southeast Arizona. Chances will start from the south and
move north and then east through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts for the
Sunday to Tuesday timeframe will be 0.15-0.45" in the valleys
with higher amounts in the mountains. Chances for snow will be low
as we don`t have a lot of cold air to work with and if any snow
falls will be very low and confined to the peaks. The low will
start to exit by Tuesday with ridging moving back over, leading to
a warming and drying trend for the second half of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 07/12Z.
Mostly SKC through the first half of the period and by 07/00Z
FEW- SCT high clouds at or around 20-25k ft AGL. SFC winds will be
less than 10 kts and variable this morning until 06/18Z and again
after 07/03Z. In between, SFC winds will increase to west to
northwest at 8-14 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Cooler temperatures today with a warming trend
through early Sunday. Today`s winds will be west to northwesterly
up to 15 mph with strong gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Easterly to
southeasterly winds return on Saturday and Sunday. Sunday morning
will be the breeziest for the weekend. Later Sunday, a weather
system will bring modest moisture and increasing chances for rain
showers and lingering through the first half of the new week. The
highest chances for rain showers will be between late Sunday night
to early Tuesday. Towards the second half, the region will be on
a warming and drying trend.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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