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000
FXUS65 KTWC 260855
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
155 AM MST Tue Sep 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will
persist for most of the week. Near record high temperatures will
be possible today and Wednesday. Gusty winds and cooler
temperatures this upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning showing scattered
high clouds moving across the area under flat ridging aloft.
These clouds will clear the area after sunrise thus expect
abundant sunshine with warm high temperatures, some of which will
be near September 26th record highs. Wednesday will see another
round of record or near record highs. Amplifying ridge aloft
responsible for the unseasonably warm later September highs.
Latest NBM probabilities has a 10% chance that Tucson will tie
record high today of 104 degrees and 57% chance of tying record
high of 102 degrees tomorrow.

After Wednesday, a cooling tend starts with high temperatures
returning to near normal values over the weekend as a strong
upper level trough moves into the western CONUS. This trof will
bring gusty southwest winds this weekend with potential for
isolated fire weather concerns on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 27/12z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL decreasing from west to east thru
26/15z, then SKC thru 27/04z except for FEW clouds 12k ft AGL SE
of KTUS. Aft 04z, SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL increasing west of
KTUS thru end of valid pd. SFC winds terrain driven and less than
12 kts thru valid pd. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather will prevail through the period with
minimum relative humidity values mainly 10-15 percent from Tucson
west, 15-20 percent in eastern valleys and 20-30 percent over the
higher elevations. Overnight recoveries will be mostly fair except
occasionally poor over higher elevations above the inversion. More
typical September wind patterns are expected today through
Friday, with some afternoon breeziness at times. Stronger SW winds
are likely on Saturday where localized Red Flag conditions are
possible for portions of SE AZ.

&&

.CLIMATE...Here is a fun climate tidbit. So far this month Tucson
has set/tied three record highs. With the possibility a 4th record
high being set/tied on Wednesday, the last time Tucson set/tied
four record highs in September was in 1990.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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