Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 211000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
300 AM MST Sun Apr 21 2019

Relatively cooler air will filter into the region to start the
new week. Breezy at times. As temperatures fall back to average,
we may see isolated mountain thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.
May-like heat will return by the end of the week.


Troughiness will continue to dig into the region as a weak low
splits down from the north. Breezy gradient and cooler air with
temperatures falling back to seasonal averages by Monday or
Tuesday. As the low lingers and temporarily loses higher latitude
support, 700mb theta-e trends and GEFS surface based CAPE
ensembles support isolated convection in mountain locations
Tuesday afternoon. The southern White Mountains of northern Graham
and Greenlee counties will be the busiest. Not exactly a dry
lightning outbreak, but rain cores will be on the narrow side, so
something to watch for concerning wildfire starts.

The low will regain higher latitude support and kick downstream
into southeastern states the second half of the week. As this
happens broad high pressure will build over the desert southwest,
with temperatures climbing back to 10 to 15 degrees above average
by Friday (mid to upper 90s from Tucson into the lower deserts).


.AVIATION...Valid through 22/12Z.
Mainly SKC expected through the period. Sfc wind S to SW this
morning at 8-12 kts. Sfc wind this afternoon will be 15-20 kts with
gusts to 30 kts, mainly for terminals near the International Border
and east of KTUS. SW to SE winds less than 10 kts then occur
overnight into Monday morning. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Minimum humidity this afternoon is expected to range
between 10 and 15 percent, but 20-ft winds will be lighter than
Saturday, generally 10-20 mph. The strongest winds will occur across
southeastern Cochise County, with brief and spotty Red Flag
conditions possible. Westerly to southwest winds will be slightly
elevated around 10-15 mph on Monday in the same areas of Cochise
County, then generally less than 15 mph Tuesday through Friday. Dry
conditions continue this week except for a chance of showers across
the higher terrain north and east of Tucson Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoon. Even an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out
at this time.






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