696
FXUS65 KTWC 142033
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
133 PM MST Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, mostly dry and locally breezy conditions will
persist this week. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is
expected each day through Thursday in the White Mountains. High
temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through Thursday,
with highs warming to several degrees above normal Friday through
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Sunny to partly cloudy skies this afternoon across
southeast Arizona with latest visible satellite imagery showing some
cloud build-ups mainly along/near the higher terrain from Tucson
eastward. Little if any precipitation is occurring except for the
White Mountains where some light showers may be occurring. At this
time, we haven`t seen any lightning strikes in our forecast area.
This is all due to some mid level moisture in combination with
strong daytime heating and a weak just off the southern California
coast.

Over the next couple of days this aforementioned mid/upper low will
shift eastward and as it does so will transition into an open wave.
While the system is weak, the combination of the mid level moisture
in place along with the aid of some additional lift will continue to
result in additional cloud build-ups Wednesday and especially
Thursday. Once again, these will be focused mainly on the higher
terrain of Graham and Greenlee Counties, where a few mainly dry
thunderstorms are possible Wednesday/Thursday. Meanwhile, breezy
winds will continue each afternoon this week, especially east of
Tucson.

For Friday into the weekend, shortwave ridging will move through the
area and with that, dry conditions return area-wide. With heights
and thicknesses increasing, temperatures will nudge upward and
Tucson will be approaching the 100 degree mark for the first time
this season. The latest NBM has lowered probabilities a little bit
with a 19% chance of hitting 100 Saturday and 16% Sunday.
Regardless, as temperatures heat up to above normal levels, it`s a
good time to keep heat safety in mind before triple digit heat
really sets in over the upcoming weeks. Thereafter, a couple of dry
weather systems will pass by early next week with additional breezes
and a few degrees of cooling.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 9-12k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC wind
SWLY thru WNWLY this afternoon at 8-15 kts becoming light and
variable after 15/04Z. Tomorrow, SFC winds becoming SWLY thru WNWLY
after 15/17Z at 9-16 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be within a couple of degrees
of normal through Thursday. Highs then warm to 3-5 degrees above
normal Friday and 6-8 degrees above normal Saturday and Sunday. Min
RH values in the valleys will be in the single digits to lower teens
the next 7 days, with values in the mountains generally between 10-
20 percent. 20-foot winds will follow typical diurnal wind trends
this week, with afternoon and early evening gustiness due to strong
surface heating. The strongest 20-foot winds appear to be Wednesday
and Thursday, especially to the east of Tucson, with wind speeds of
15-20 mph and gusts to near 30 mph. Southwest winds are expected on
Wednesday and west-northwest winds on Thursday. There will be just
enough mid level moisture in place through Thursday for a few
buildups during the afternoon and early evening hours in the White
Mountains, especially Thursday. Any storms that do develop will be
dry, with gusty/erratic winds and lightning, but little to no
measurable rainfall.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$


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