Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 101607

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
905 AM MST Tue Dec 10 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions are expected across much of the area into
early next week. The exception is Sunday and Sunday night when a few
rain and snow showers may occur across the White Mountains. A
warming trend begins today and will prevail into Saturday before
cooler temperatures return early next week.


.DISCUSSION...The latest satellite imagery and surface observations
indicate the areas of dense fog were eroding rapidly this morning.
Therefore, have let the Dense Fog Advisory expire at 9 am MST that
was in effect for the lower elevation zones across central/eastern
southeast Arizona. Otherwise, any lingering low stratus clouds and
patchy fog should dissipate within the next 1-2 hours. Overall,
expect sunny skies today, with some cirrus clouds moving in from the
west/northwest tonight. High temperatures this afternoon will warm
to near normal levels, as highs range from the upper 50s across
eastern areas to the upper 60s across far western Pima county (with
mid 60s for the Tucson Metro).


.AVIATION...Valid through 11/18Z.
Clear skies to few clouds around 9k-13k ft MSL today, then FEW to
perhaps BKN clouds above 20k ft MSL this evening into Wednesday
morning. Surface wind variable in direction under 10 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions across much of the area into early
next week. The exception is Sunday and Sunday night when isolated
rain and snow showers may occur across the White Mountains. 20-foot
winds will be terrain driven under 15 mph into this weekend.


.PREV DISCUSSION...Upper ridge axis extended from the southern
California coast northward into the Pacific Northwest early this
morning. The upper ridge will flatten later today while moving
eastward into the Great Basin. After fog dissipation, expect sunny
skies to mostly sunny skies later today as enough lower level
moisture should exists for some cumuloform clouds to develop. Any
cumulus clouds dissipating this evening with the loss of daytime
heating, then some cirriform clouds tonight into Wednesday as a
shortwave trough moves eastward across the area.

High pressure aloft will build near the northern California coast
Thursday into Friday. This pattern will translate into continued
precip-free conditions, although some cirriform clouds should also
move across the area at times. The upper high is progged to be
shunted southward this weekend as a broad upper trough deepens over
the Intermountain West. Various 10/00Z models suggest that a
stronger impulse will migrate north of the area Sunday.

Per coordination with neighboring WFO`s, there should be enough
moisture with this feature to justify isolated rain/snow showers
Sunday and Sunday night across the White Mountains. At this time,
appears that any precip amounts will be quite light. Otherwise, dry
conditions elsewhere Sunday into Monday as the flow aloft
transitions to a northwesterly component behind the departing

High temperatures today will generally be 3-7 degrees warmer versus
Monday. Expect a couple of degrees or so of warming Wednesday
followed by nearly identical daytime temperatures Thursday. Slightly
warmer temperatures are on tap Saturday followed by a cooling trend
Sunday into Monday.






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