833
FXUS65 KTWC 192139
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
239 PM MST Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough will bring several degrees of cooling along with
gusty afternoon winds this week leading to Red Flag Warning
conditions and a low possibility for dry thunderstorms. Expect
typical late May temperatures in the 90s for most locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A broad trough is developing through the Great Basin and much of
the intermountain west over the next 24 hours. A weak low off the
southern CA / northern Baja coast is expected to move into
southern AZ bringing breezy winds to the area Monday afternoon,
with a few dry thunderstorms possible near the mountains late
Monday into Monday evening. PoPs are low to nonexistent with
limited available moisture currently in the forecast. However,
NAEFS mean integrated water vapor transport trends continue to
increase into our corner of the state for Monday and Monday
evening to go along with the breezy to locally windy gradient
winds. Combined with modest dynamics and shear from the low,
isolated high based dry thunderstorms will be possible. Due to
continued troughing in the area this will keep a breezy gradient
for most afternoons through the week.

&&

.AVIATION... Valid through 21/00Z
SKC until 20/03Z becoming FEW-SCT AOA 20k ft AGL. Cloud cover
will increase to SCT-BKN AOA 20/11Z AOA 20k ft AGL persisting till
the end of the forecast period. This afternoon, westerly SFC
winds around 8-10 kts will become light and variable overnight.
Starting around 21/17Z westerly winds increase to 15-17 kts at
KTUS and KOLS westward and around 22-24 kts at KSAD and KDUG
persisting to the end of the forecast period. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions continue this week with min RHs in the single
digits for the lower valleys and the teens for the higher terrain.
Generally poor overnight recoveries. Weak weather systems passing
to our north will bring gusty afternoon winds most days,
especially Monday. With the low RHs, higher winds, and the dry
fuels a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Monday morning
through Monday evening for most lower elevations east of Tucson.
In addition, there is potential for isolated dry thunderstorms
late Monday.

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Monday for AZZ152.

&&

$$

Public...Malarkey

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