939
FXUS63 KUNR 312339
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
539 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer over the weekend with daily chances for showers and
  thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to severe, especially
  on Sunday over central SD.

- Warm weather expected for much of next week with drier
  conditions mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Thursday)
Issued at 104 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Water vapor shows weak troughing across the Northern Tier beneath
a nearly stationary low over northern SASK/Manitoba. At the
surface, high is centered over southwest SD. Showers from the
overnight/morning short wave are quickly shifting northeast out of
our zones. Early afternoon temps remain cool with readings in the
50s to mid 60s (40s in the Black Hills) and mostly cloudy skies.

Quasi-zonal flow will persist through the weekend into early next
week, with periodic chances for showers/storms. Warm advection
ensues on Saturday as weak trof axis shifts east, with highs into
the 70s to near 80. CAPE will increase in our southern zones with
next embedded short wave bringing another chance for storms. Some
stronger storms are possible in southwest/south-central SD, but
better convective parameters will remain to our south. A stronger
wave moves in for Sunday, with associated cold front pushing
through in the morning to early afternoon. The timing of the front
may result in the better severe chance in our eastern 1/3rd of
zones, but should the front slow down the severe threat could
extend through all of western SD. Highs Sunday will reach well
into the 80s at least across our eastern 1/3rd of zones east of
the cold front.

Monday looks to be somewhat drier with short wave ridging passing
overhead, but next upper trof works in Monday night into Tuesday
for another chance of storms. Upper ridge still looks to be on
track for mid to late next week, resulting in a drier and warmer
pattern.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 539 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected after 06z tonight
through Saturday morning across southwest South Dakota...which
may include the Black Hills area up to Interstate 90. This
precipitation will move off toward central SD through the day
tomorrow. More isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
across the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. MVFR conditions
are possible in and near any storms.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson
AVIATION...13