196
FXUS65 KVEF 181735
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1035 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Gusty north winds have mostly ended
with northeast winds 10 knots or less expected the remainder of
the morning. Winds then look to gradually become east then
southeast briefly around sunset. Winds will then quickly shift to
the southwest after 03-04z and remain through sunrise Wednesday.
Scattered to broken high clouds to move into the region this
evening and overnight.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty north winds to continue into the mid to late
afternoon at KEED and KIFP in the wake of a front. Elsewhere,
winds will generally decrease and become more diurnal in nature.
Aside from KEED/KIFP, wind speed generally look to remain 15 knots
or less. Winds at KBIH so shift the south this afternoon, then
quickly become northerly this evening and overnight. Winds at KDAG
to remain light and somewhat variable before shifting to the
west/southwest this evening and overnight, become gusty. Scattered
to broken high clouds to move into the region late this afternoon
into the overnight hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...241 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds will linger down the Colorado River Valley
today, resulting in choppy waves on area lakes. Today will be the
coolest day of the forecast period with high temperatures around
3 to 7 degrees cooler than normal. Temperatures will recover
during the second half of the week, with normal temperatures
returning tomorrow. temperatures returning to normal by Wednesday.


&&

.UPDATE...North winds remain strong in the lower Colorado River
Valley, while elsewhere winds have weakened. Those winds in the
lower Colorado River will stay gusty until noon before weakening
this afternoon. Enjoy the below normal temperatures today as
guidance continues to advertise a building ridge over the area
leading to well above normal temperatures from Saturday, well into
next week. The probabilities for high temps 110+ for Las Vegas
from Saturday through next week now running between 60%-70%, which
is an increase for yesterday. More to come on the potential
moisture increase into Arizona in this afternoon`s discussion. No
update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Wednesday Night...
Current infrared and water vapor satellite imagery show an upper-
level trough moving through the Western US. The "cold front"
associated with this trough can be seen sweeping through southern
California and northwestern Arizona, with gusty northerly winds
located behind this front. These gusty northerly winds will linger
down the Colorado River Valley today, resulting in choppy waves
up to 2 feet on area lakes. Outside of northerly winds, we will
also see temperatures topping out around 3 to 7 degrees cooler
than normal thanks to this trough and it`s associated front.
Troughing will remain the dominant synoptic feature across the
Western US for much of the week. However, we will see 500 mb
heights gradually rise as the trough weakens, which will allow for
temperatures to take off during the second half of the week with
temperatures returning to normal by Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday.

A building ridge of high pressure over northern Mexico will allow
for modest height rises and an increase in temperatures across
the Desert Southwest, despite a persistent longwave trough
dominating the synoptic pattern of the western CONUS. Temperatures
will continue to rise through the end of the week and through the
weekend, with temperatures maxing out at around 10 degrees above
seasonal averages by the end of the weekend. As such, expect
desert valleys to return to the `Major` HeatRisk category on
Saturday and Sunday.

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center continues to watch a
disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico "Potential Tropical Depression
One". This warm tropical moisture is expected to track westward
across Mexico before getting wrapped up into the monsoonal high
pressure (which remains situated over northern Mexico). As such,
moisture will funnel up central Arizona and as far west as the
Colorado River Valley, resulting in slight chances of precipitation
in Mohave County each afternoon Friday through Monday.

The low levels of the atmosphere remain very dry, so showers and
thunderstorms that form are likely to encounter substantial
evaporation before precipitation reaches the ground. The more likely
scenario will be dry lightning, which could increase chances of
wildfire starts in the area. Will continue to monitor this moisture
flux through the week and update the forecast accordingly.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pierce
AVIATION...Austin

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