Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
629 FXUS65 KVEF 110233 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 733 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm weather with periods of excessive heat will be the main weather concern through midweek as a ridge builds over the region. A weak weather system moving through Thursday and Friday will allow for slight cooling and an increase in surface winds...but temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend. Uncertainty increases next week with potential for breezy conditions and possibly a more noteworthy cool down. && .UPDATE...Dry conditions and mostly clear skies persisted across the region late this afternoon into the evening as the area remained sandwiched between high pressure to the northeast and a cut off low off the Baja California Coast. With slight height rises and light breezes this afternoon, temperatures were a few degrees warmer at this hour than yesterday. Quiet weather will continue overnight with mostly clear skies and light winds expected. As mentioned earlier, high pressure influencing our local weather for the time being will result in slightly warmer temperatures. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night in most locations. No changes were made to the evening and overnight forecast. -Nickerson- && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...1203 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .DISCUSSION...through early next week. Midday satellite imagery depicts mostly clear skies across the region today while temperatures are hovering just slightly cooler than observed at this time yesterday. With reduced cloud cover, afternoon highs should quickly catch up and top out near or slightly warmer than Sunday for most areas. Temperatures will climb more tomorrow and Wednesday as a sharp ridge axis builds north out of northern Mexico and Arizona and pokes into the Great Basin region. Meanwhile, a weak cut off low will take shape off the coast of SoCal. This pattern will spell hot temperatures for the region with widespread moderate heat risk across the region. Under the most intense axis of the ridge, stretching from Death Valley into Southern Nevada and Northwest Arizona, pockets of Major heat risk continue to be advertised for Tuesday and Wednesday, which closely aligns with the ongoing Excessive Heat Warning set to begin at 10 am Tuesday and continue through 9 pm Wednesday evening. Latest NBM probabilities have a 50 percent chance of Las Vegas reaching or exceeding 110 degrees by Tuesday afternoon, and a 67 percent chance Wednesday. During these periods of excessive heat, extra heat safety precautions are strongly encouraged including limiting outdoor exposure, staying hydrated, and checking on more vulnerable groups who have sensitivities to the heat. By Thursday, the aforementioned weak cut off low offshore of southern California will begin to push inland and shunt our ridge axis to the east. This will begin a trend of very modest cooling Thursday and Friday, while still remaining above normal. A modest increase in southerly surface winds can also be expected Thursday as the low makes its approach. The low pressure system itself will move through pretty moisture starved, however, it will begin to interact with some mid-level moisture across central and eastern Arizona, and may spark a high based shower or or thunderstorm across far eastern Mohave County thursday afternoon, with some lingering potential persisting into Friday as well. Uncertainty increases over the weekend and beyond as the various ensemble guidance is struggling on the details of potential renewed troughing across the West. Weaker trough solutions would suggest some afternoon breeziness and continued above normal temperatures, while solutions favoring a stronger trough would lead to temperatures falling below normal and potential for periods of windy conditions with enhanced fire weather danger. The deterministic NBM guidance favors a middle ground solution for now, with temperatures falling to near normal with breezy conditions area wide. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will generally remain light through early afternoon, but will gradually become more east to southeast this afternoon with speeds between 6-10 knots. Around sunset, look for winds to shift to the south-southwest, and persist through the night. Similar pattern expected tomorrow, but winds will be slightly weaker. Mostly clear skies with just a few high clouds. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Much of the area will see wind speeds less than 10 knots through the afternoon with a few localized gusts between 10-15 knots at times. Wind directions will vary with most areas seeing a general south to southwest wind with the exception in the Las Vegas Valley where a east to southeast wind will prevail through the afternoon. Similar conditions will persist Tuesday. Mostly clear skies with just a few high clouds, expect a FEW cumulus clouds over the Sierra. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Outler AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter