880
FXUS65 KVEF 032055 CCA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
122 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High clouds will continue across the region through
tonight before clearing out Tuesday. An early June heatwave will
develop Wednesday through Friday with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
above normal. Temperatures will slowly retreat closer to seasonal
averages over the weekend into early next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Friday.

Considerable high clouds will continue to spread across our area
tonight then clear out Tuesday behind a potent Pacific Northwest
trough pulling away toward the northern plains which will allow a
strong ridge to build over the western states Wednesday through
Friday. This will result in a significant heatwave developing across
our region and the Desert Southwest with major to extreme HeatRisk
as temperatures climb 10 to 15 degrees above normal for most sites
in our forecast area. An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect
Wednesday through Friday for our Mojave Desert zones and the Owens
Valley. A Heat Advisory remains in effect Wednesday through Friday
for the southern Great Basin and southern Nevada mountains.

The latest NBM supports highs around 108 degrees in Las Vegas by
Wednesday and 67% chance of reaching 112 degrees by Thursday...which
would be two degrees above the record high (110F) for June 6th. This
would tie the earliest date for reaching 110 degrees which
previously occurred June 6th, 2010. The forecast high for Death
Valley is 121. While not a record, the first 120 of the season is
normally June 15th, so it would be an earlier-than-normal
occurrence. If the temperatures overachieve at both Bishop and
Kingman and they hit 105 degrees Thursday, it would be the earliest
Bishop has hit 105, the current record occurrence is June 8, 2016.
For Kingman, it will be the 4th earliest occurrence. Several record
high temperatures, and record high minimum temperatures are in
jeopardy of being tied or broken this week. Overnight low
temperatures will remain above 80 degrees Wednesday night through
Friday across most lower Mojave Desert sites, so there will not be
much relief from the extreme early season daytime temperatures.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Monday.

Model ensembles indicate the heatwave will begin to break over our
area Saturday, but there is some uncertainty regarding how quickly
this will occur which depends on the influence of a weak Eastern
Pacific trough and also a closed low in the vicinity of the Baja
Peninsula which may allow moisture to be pulled over the Desert
Southwest Saturday and Sunday. The latest NBM temperature forecast
has 108F for Las Vegas, and major to extreme HeatRisk is indicated
to hold over central and northeast Clark County and some other
Mojave Desert areas which would may lead to extending the Excessive
Heat Warning into Saturday for some zones. There is good agreement
among the majority of model ensembles that temps will decrease
several degrees Sunday and Monday as the eastern Pacific trough
moves inland.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light winds will transition to the
south or southeast after 18Z. These winds will likely be less than
10KT but uncertain where the wind direction will set up between 150
to 180 degrees. By 21Z, winds will become southwest. 100% chance for
wind speeds over 10KT with the southwest winds, with gusts of 20-
25KT through the afternoon. After sunset, gusts will end. South
winds may remain above 10KT for a few hours from 03Z-06Z but by 06Z
high confidence that wind speeds will drop below 10KT.

After a period of light winds early Tuesday morning, north winds
will push into valley. Winds will shift north between 14-16Z. Wind
speeds may hit 10KT or more as the winds move in,  however they
should be short lived before winds diminish and turn east by around
mid-day Tuesday and continue through the afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California... Breezy south to southwest winds are expected this
afternoon across much of the region. South winds up the Colorado
River Valley will gust up to 20KT at times this afternoon. At KBIH,
expect breezy west winds instead of south winds this afternoon with
gusts up to 20KT as well. KDAG will also see west winds, with the
strongest winds expected to push in around 00Z with gusts up to
30KT.

Winds will generally diminish this evening and tonight, however
elevated winds will push south through the region through the night.
Winds will turn north at KBIH this evening between 00Z and 03Z-
gusts of 20-25KT are expected much of the night with the north winds
though a brief lull is possible between 06Z and 09Z. As the north
winds push south, they should lose their punch and therefore the
strong north winds are expected at KBIH. North winds will make it
into southern Nevada by Tuesday morning, with south to southwest
winds expected further south. Occasional high clouds between 15kft-
25kft are expected at times through the TAF period.

The Colorado River Valley TAF sites will see light and variable
winds pick up from the south later this morning/early this
afternoon. These 20 to 25 knot southerly wind gusts will continue
into the evening hours when gusts will drop off but winds will
continue to maintain a more southerly direction. Light and variable
winds will pick up and swing to the westerly around mid-afternoon at
KBIH. These 20 knot westerly gusts will continue into the early
evening hours before swinging to the northwest around 02/03 UTC.
Light and variable winds at KVGT will begin veering around to the
southwest and increasing in speed later this morning. Both KVGT and
KHND will see winds settle in from the southwest during the early
afternoon hours. These 20 to 25 knot southwesterly wind gusts will
continue into the evening hours. KDAG will see 8 to 12 knot westerly
winds shift to the west-northwest around mid-morning before picking
up and shifting to the west-southwest later this afternoon. These 25
to 30 knot west-southwesterly wind gusts will continue into the
overnight hours.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Adair
AVIATION...Nickerson

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