677
FXUS65 KVEF 030838
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
138 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* One more day of thunderstorm activity before dry conditions
  return.

* Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire danger on
  Friday.

* Warming trend expected next week with major heat risk returning
  by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through the middle of next week.

Thunderstorm activity remains quite active tonight with ongoing
storms across central Mohave County and the Colorado River Valley.
This activity is being fueled by fairly strong forcing immediately
ahead of a shortwave trough axis, despite waning instability
during the overnight hours. These storms will gradually lift
northward overnight, staying mainly east of the Las Vegas Valley
though can`t rule out a storm or two even into the metro area,
especially along the east side.

The shortwave trough will finally shift eastward midday tomorrow,
with drier air spreading from west to east. Additional storm
development is still anticipated across Lincoln, Clark, and Mohave
Counties, though activity is favored fairly early in the day
(through about mid-afternoon) before drier air mixes down and
stability increases by the evening hours. Gusty winds and brief
downpours will be the primary impacts with any storms that form.

By Friday, drier air will have overspread the region and an
additional shortwave pushing into the Great Basin will spread a
belt of enhanced low level flow across much of southern Nevada.
Given the low humidity, gusty winds expected, and dry state of
regional grasses and vegetation, fire danger will be quite
elevated. There is also the consideration that it will be the 4th
of July. Strongest winds will be focused across Lincoln County
where a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Friday afternoon and
evening, but enhanced fire danger is expected across much of the
region.

After temps hover slightly below or near seasonal normals through
the weekend, a large and dominant ridge will build over the
interior West next week. This will send temperatures climbing,
with widespread major heat risk advertised by Wednesday and
Thursday. This looks to translate to 110+ high temperatures across
much of the Mojave Desert including Las Vegas, and 120+ within the
lower reaches of Death Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...East
to southeast winds are expected by late morning, and a few gusts
to 20 knots will be possible after 19Z. After a dry morning,
additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in
the afternoon across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona.
Thunderstorms should be more isolated than today, but could still
produce lightning, gusty outflow winds, brief heavy rain, and CIGs
below 10kft

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas area TAF sites will be similar to those described above for
Harry Reid.  Elsewhere, scattered convection is expected on Thursday
afternoon, with additional thunderstorm impacts possible across
southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. However, these impacts are
expected to be more isolated than those seen today.  Convection is
expected to end across southern Nevada by early evening and across
northwest Arizona by late evening tomorrow.  Winds will generally
follow typical diurnal patterns in the Owens Valley and western
Mojave Desert. In the Colorado River valley, southerly winds are
expected, although they will be more subject to convective
influences during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy southwest winds will overspread the region on
Friday and combine with min RH dropping into the single digits
and teens. Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated in
Lincoln County where a Red Flag Warning has been posted, with
elevated risk elsewhere. Dry conditions are expected to continue
heading into next week along with a warming trend.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/FIRE...Outler
AVIATION...Planz

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