Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
628 FXUS65 KVEF 140828 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 128 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Short duration ridging will bring increasing temperatures to the area Friday and Saturday followed by broad troughing and cooler conditions Sunday through the middle of next week. Breezy to windy conditions will settle in over the area this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Friday through Sunday. Shortwave energy associated with an expansive low pressure system over the Gulf of Alaska will continue to nudge a weak low pressure system over the Desert Southwest to the east today. Shortwave ridging behind it will allow for slight temperature recovery across our area. Winds will be generally light everywhere except in our far western areas where enhanced winds are forecast in response to an approaching shortwave. Currently, not looking at any significant winds on Friday. High temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer under mostly clear skies. Saturday continues to look like the hottest, windiest day. High temperatures will be near 10 degrees above normal with breezy- windy conditions across the region. Not seeing any need for wind headlines with winds forecast to be sub-advisory. Widespread moderate Heat Risk is forecast with local areas of major Heat Risk. The localized nature and short duration of this heat event does not justify issuing any heat-related products although it will be very hot. Anyone planning outdoor activities on Saturday should keep this in mind and be prepared to protect themselves from the heat. The final day of the weekend will bring relief from the hottest conditions. Widespread minor Heat Risk is forecast with the exception of the lowest elevation areas including Death Valley National Park and locations within the Colorado River Valley where moderate Heat Risk is expected. Temperatures are forecast to be 5-7 degrees cooler then Saturday with windy conditions across much of the region. Winds are forecast to be near advisory level but overall sub-advisory. A fire weather note: surface conditions will remain very dry and these dry conditions combined with strong gusts over the weekend into early next week will lead to enhanced fire concerns. Even though significant fire potential is low to moderate across our area of responsibility, Stage 1 fire restrictions are in place for various locations including the Spring Mountains and Lake Mead National Recreation Area. .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday Ensemble solutions remain in good agreement leading to higher than average confidence in the Monday through Thursday forecast. Anomalously deep trough for mid-June will situated across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies Monday. The trough will remain progressive with all the dynamics continuing east into the northern plain states Tuesday. Main impact for our region will be the continuation of the gusty south to southwest winds into Monday. Less wind will be seen Tuesday through Thursday. What many folks will be enjoying is the brief break in the hot temperatures Monday through Wednesday. Tuesday will be the `coolest` day with highs in the double digits at most locations, the exception will still be Death Valley NP and the lower Colorado River Valley where highs will range between 100-105 degrees. Temperatures quickly start too warm on Thursday as trough starts to weaken its grip on the region. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Variable winds less than 5 knots can be expected this morning then light east-southeast components 5-7 knots are likely 20Z-01Z. West-southwest winds around 8-10 knots will develop by 01Z and persist overnight. No significant cloud cover is forecast through the TAF period. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Winds less than 10 knots following typical diurnal patterns will occur at TAF sites around southern Nevada and the lower Colorado River Valley. Brief west winds gusting 20-25 knots can be expected at KBIH late this afternoon and early evening. KDAG will see west winds gusting 20-25 knots from 00Z through 12Z. VFR conditions will prevail at all regional TAF sites through the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Salmen LONG TERM...Pierce AVIATION...Adair For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter