Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
717 FXUS65 KVEF 082059 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 159 PM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS...An incoming trough approaching the west coast sends high pressure to our east, bringing an end to the heatwave that has plagued the area for the past several days. A heat dome builds and strengthens to our east Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to the next heatwave for our area. However, it is forecast to be less intense and relatively brief this time around. This is due to a combination of synoptic scale weather features that are forecast to bring relief from the heat later in the week. && .DISCUSSION...Sunday through Monday. The strong high pressure ridge we have been dealing with the past several days finally shifts east of the area on Sunday in response to an incoming Pacific trough. The ridge moves over the central U.S. and holds firm, leading to a disassembling of the trough into two separate components. The northern portion of the trough is progressive and easily rides over the top of the ridge while the southern portion stalls, gets pinched off from the main flow and becomes a cutoff circulation off the coast of southern California and northern Baja. What we end up with weatherwise in our area, is a couple of days where temperatures are several degrees cooler and well below record levels. Add to this, the possibility of more cloud cover from the closed circulation to our southwest and breezy winds during the hottest part of the day. Tuesday and Wednesday... The northern jet stream is forecast to remain active for the upcoming week with waves of energy sweeping across the northern tier states. This acts to suppress the ridging over the central U.S. and allows the building of a heat dome over Arizona, New Mexico, and northern Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. This will lead to a less intense, shorter duration heatwave for our area where high temperatures surge back to 10 or more degrees above normal Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat Risk increases with major impacts possible for parts of area beginning Tuesday and becoming more widespread on Wednesday. This will present the next opportunity for the issuance of excessive heat related products for our area. Thursday through next Saturday... The combination of a strong Eastern Pacific shortwave approaching the northwest coast coupled with a building heat dome to our east latches onto the cutoff low to our southwest and drags/guides it into the southwestern states on Thursday. It is almost certain to drop temperatures again but could also bring a brief increase in moisture to the area on Thursday. The latest run of the NBM isn`t suggesting much of an impact from the low other than lowering temperatures a few degrees on Thursday and keeping them stable into the weekend. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southeast wind components with gusts 15-20 knots can be expected until about 02Z followed by south- southwest winds with gusts diminishing after sunset. South-southeast winds will likely develop Sunday morning with gusts 15-20 knots through the afternoon. FEW-SCT clouds, with bases at or above 12 kft AGL. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Afternoon south-southeast winds gusting 20-25 knots will occur at most TAF sites in the area through Sunday with speeds decreasing to less than 10 knots after sunset into the early morning ours. The exception to this is KDAG, where the wind direction will be generally from the west through the period. At KBIH, isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity late this afternoon will lead to a 30- 50% chance of west-northwest outflow gusts up to 30 kts reaching the airport. Scattered clouds around 10 kft AGL with broken clouds above, while the rest of the sites should only see FEW-SCT clouds at or above 12 kft AGL. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Salmen AVIATION...Adair For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter