Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 150849

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
149 AM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An increasing southwest flow aloft will lead to a hot
and breezy day across the region today. However, a shift in the
weather pattern will bring a cooling trend to the area beginning
Sunday and continuing through the middle of next week before
temperatures are forecast to increase once again. Temperatures
will be more seasonal early to mid week for the first time since
late May.


.SHORT TERM...Saturday and Sunday.

A low pressure system centered over Vancouver Island weakens as it
spreads east into the PacNW and northern Great Basin. For our
area, the increasing southwest flow will lead to good atmospheric
mixing this afternoon resulting in gusty winds and mostly minor
impacts from wind. The northern half of our area will see locally
breezy conditions of 10-20 mph this afternoon with windy
conditions of 20-30 mph across our southern deserts. Locally
stronger winds are possible in the western Mojave Desert generally
west of Baker CA. Winds are forecast to decrease tonight but we
could see elevated, gusty winds continue in the higher terrain
and in the western parts of San Bernardino County.

The low re-develops over the the PacNW on Sunday with shortwave
energy passing across northern California and northern Nevada
Sunday night. Gusty southerly winds develop across our southern
deserts once again with stronger winds of 30-35 mph developing in
parts of Mohave County during the afternoon hours. Later in the
afternoon and overnight, west-southwest winds increase over the
western portion of San Bernardino County while winds decrease by
midnight in Mohave County.

Mostly clear skies are expected over the weekend although we could
see occasional high clouds at times. Today will be the hottest day
of the weekend with high temperatures expected to be 6-10 degrees
above normal then about 5 degrees cooler on Sunday. The areal
coverage for major Heat Risk has shrunk for the 3rd consecutive
day leaving leaving most of the area under minor-moderate Heat

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.

Still expecting the passage of a weak, dry cold front Monday night
which will bring high temperatures back down closer to normal Monday-
Wednesday. Surface winds will remain elevated on Monday then return
to a more typical daytime south-southwest direction with speeds 10-
20 mph the rest of the week. Temperatures quickly start too warm on
Thursday and Friday as broad, weak trough across the west starts to
weaken its grip on the region. HeatRisk will mostly be in the
`Moderate" category, with patchy `Major` values for a few of
the lower desert valleys heading into next weekend.


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southerly winds will be favored
through the overnight period with very sporadic gusts to 15 knots.
Winds will become light post daybreak and may favor north or
northeast directions through early afternoon before southwesterly
winds resume between 20-21z with gusts of 20-25 knots.  Breezy south
winds will persist into the overnight period under mostly clear

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy south or southwest winds are expected across
most of the Mojave Desert and Las Vegas Valley TAF sites through the
period, particularly in the afternoon and evening Saturday.
Strongest winds will be focused near KDAG where gusts to 30 knots
are possible. Across the Sierra more northerly winds are favored
with afternoon and evening gusts to near 20 knots. Skies will be
mostly clear across the region.


.FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon relative humidity values are expected to
be under 15 percent over the weekend with poor overnight RH
recovery. We will see gusty southwest winds develop both Saturday
and Sunday afternoons with sustained winds between 10 and 20 mph
with gusts 20 to 35 mph. The combination of low RH and gusty winds
will elevate fire spread concerns, at least locally on Sunday in
Mohave County and the Colorado River Valley where a Red Flag
Warning is in effect.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating



LONG TERM...Pierce

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