


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
115 FXUS65 KVEF 031724 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1024 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * One more day of thunderstorm activity before dry conditions return. * Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire danger on Friday. * Warming trend expected next week with major heat risk returning by midweek. && .DISCUSSION...through the middle of next week. Thunderstorm activity remains quite active tonight with ongoing storms across central Mohave County and the Colorado River Valley. This activity is being fueled by fairly strong forcing immediately ahead of a shortwave trough axis, despite waning instability during the overnight hours. These storms will gradually lift northward overnight, staying mainly east of the Las Vegas Valley though can`t rule out a storm or two even into the metro area, especially along the east side. The shortwave trough will finally shift eastward midday tomorrow, with drier air spreading from west to east. Additional storm development is still anticipated across Lincoln, Clark, and Mohave Counties, though activity is favored fairly early in the day (through about mid-afternoon) before drier air mixes down and stability increases by the evening hours. Gusty winds and brief downpours will be the primary impacts with any storms that form. By Friday, drier air will have overspread the region and an additional shortwave pushing into the Great Basin will spread a belt of enhanced low level flow across much of southern Nevada. Given the low humidity, gusty winds expected, and dry state of regional grasses and vegetation, fire danger will be quite elevated. There is also the consideration that it will be the 4th of July. Strongest winds will be focused across Lincoln County where a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Friday afternoon and evening, but enhanced fire danger is expected across much of the region. After temps hover slightly below or near seasonal normals through the weekend, a large and dominant ridge will build over the interior West next week. This will send temperatures climbing, with widespread major heat risk advertised by Wednesday and Thursday. This looks to translate to 110+ high temperatures across much of the Mojave Desert including Las Vegas, and 120+ within the lower reaches of Death Valley. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...A complex and low confidence forecast is on tap with the potential for scattered thunderstorms in the 19z-23z timeframe. Even if storms don`t directly impact the terminal, gusty outflow winds can be expected across the Las Vegas Valley. Beyond 00z, lingering showers and storms should diminish and/or move east of the terminal, with a return of a more southerly wind pattern. Winds may remain elevated into the evening before eventually falling below 10 knots overnight. Temperatures to climb to right around 100 degrees between 22z and 01z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...KHND and KVGT will see the potential for showers and storms in the 19z-23z timeframe, along with gusty outflow winds. After 00z, activity should diminish and/or move east of the Las Vegas Valley. Breezy southerly winds of 10-15 knots appear likely to resume before decreasing below 10 knots overnight. For the remaining terminals, not expecting showers or storms. Winds to generally follow somewhat diurnal pattern with a few gusts of 15 to 20 knots in the late afternoon/evening, subsiding overnight. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Outler AVIATION...Austin For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter