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269
FXUS61 KALY 210243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1043 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather for most of the region through this weekend and
through Tuesday, with just an isolated shower possible in
western New England Saturday. Chances of showers increase
Tuesday night into Wednesday with unsettled weather conditions
for mid week. Temperatures become seasonable today and continues
for next week, with a few locations seeing cooler than normal
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
.Update...As of 10:40 PM EDT...Low stratus continues to expand
westwards from New England into eastern NY behind a side-door
cold front. This, as well as another areas of cloud cover that
resulted in a few showers across the Upper Hudson Valley, have
kept temperatures a little warmer than the previous forecast,
while areas west of I-87 have seen mainly clear skies and light
winds that have allowed temperatures to drop into the low 50s in
some areas. So, adjusted temperatures to better align with
current trends through the next few hours, although not much
change made to overnight lows. Otherwise, a few showers continue
in the upper Hudson Valley ahead of the cold front, but
expecting these to diminish over the next hour or two now that
we have lost all daytime heating. Overall, previous forecast
remains on track with more details below..

.Previous...Sfc low pressure remains situated southeast of Cape
Cod with a ridge of high pressure extending from a surface high
southwestwards across our eastern New England areas. This setup
is resulting in relatively strong E/NE flow that will help push
a side-door cold front into our area from east to west
overnight tonight. Behind the cold front, current satellite
imagery shows widespread low stratus. A few showers have popped
up around the Lake George region at the leading edge of the
cold front where there is some enhanced low-level convergence.
As we head into tonight, low stratus slowly expands westwards,
while high clouds associated with a separate disturbance filter
in from the west. While clouds will increase overnight, there
should still be several hours of relatively clear skies and
light winds for most of the region, so we are still expecting
some radiative cooling and patchy fog to develop overnight
tonight. Lows will be in the 50s for most areas, although some
upper 40s are once again possible in the high terrain areas.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Western edge of the more solid cloud cover reaches somewhere
near the NY and New England border Saturday, then the coastal
storm finally begins to exit. A sprinkle cannot be ruled out in
the Berkshires, southern VT and NW CT. The side door cold front
tracks west through our region and boundary layer temperatures
will cool a little as winds will be light from the east and
southeast. Highs Saturday in the 70s with around 70 in higher
terrain and western New England.

A mix of mix and high clouds is expected Saturday night through
Monday as upper energy in the Great Lakes weakens and lifts
north and east, missing eastern NY and western New England. So,
cooler weather from the north and east and continued dry, while
some mid and high clouds from the weakening system north and
west of us.

Highs Sunday around 70 to mid 70s and some 60s higher terrain.
Highs Monday in the upper 60s to lower 70s and cooler in higher
elevations. Some thickening clouds Monday as flat upper ridging
in our region exits and stronger upper energy begins its
approach from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper system approaches from the west and the old boundary
pushes east as a diffuse warm front Monday night through
Tuesday. Mainly dry but more increase in the clouds through
Tuesday. Highs Tuesday in the 60s with around 60 higher terrain.

Increasing low level forcing, upper dynamics and moisture
advection will support rain chances Tuesday night through
Friday, with the best chances Tuesday night and Wednesday. Still
as the upper energy weakens later Wednesday through Friday and
upper ridging may try to build back into the region, scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur through the
period, with very slowly decreasing coverage each day.

Highs Wednesday and Thursday in the 60s with around 60 higher
terrain. Highs Friday, with continued decrease in coverage of
showers, warming just a little, in the upper 60s to lower 70s
and lower to mid 60s higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00z Sunday...All TAF sites are currently VFR, and should
remain VFR through at least the next couple hours. However,
expecting patchy fog to develop once again at GFL tonight. Have
included tempo groups for periods of IFR vsbys with patchy fog
at GFL. Not expecting much in the way of fog/mist at ALB/POU,
although some MVFR stratus may get to POU towards daybreak,
although confidence is low. Most challenging forecast is at PSF,
which is currently near the leading edge of the low stratus that
should expand westwards through tonight. Based on the latest
satellite data, we are not expecting much fog to form at PSF due
to the low stratus. However, MVFR (and likely fuel-alternate)
cigs are expected to develop tonight as the low stratus expands
westwards. Low confidence in how quickly this will happen, but
based on latest trends have added MVFR cig restrictions in a few
hours earlier compared to previous forecast.

Fog quickly lifts tomorrow morning at GFL by around 12z, with a
return to VFR conditions at GFL and continuing VFR conditions at
POU/ALB with FEW to SCT mid and high clouds around through the
day. At PSF, low stratus is expected to linger through mid to
late morning before conditions return to VFR through the
remainder of the day.

Winds will be at around 5 kt from the E/NE this evening,
becoming light and variable overnight tonight. Winds tomorrow
increase to around 5-7 kt becoming more easterly still at 5-7 kt
by tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...Main/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Main