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854
FXUS61 KALY 291449
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1049 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Fair and mostly dry weather will persist this afternoon.
A disturbance passing to the south will bring rain
showers south of I-90, and most likely along the I-84 corridor.
Cooler temperatures behind the cold frontal passage persist through
Thursday night, before a warming trend Friday into the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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.UPDATE...as of 1049 AM EDT...A weak secondary cold front
continues to move across southern NY and western New England. A
short-wave is moving across OH toward PA. The latest CAMs trends
show and isolated to pop-up shower or thunderstorm this
afternoon in the mid Hudson Valley, but until the short-wave
arrives the day should be mainly dry with fair weather cumulus.
The 12Z KALY sounding is drier with a PWAT down to 0.86" and the
profile is drier/more stable than yesterday with only 190 J/kg
of MUCAPE. We retooled the PoPs and weather and tried to keep
any isolated or scattered threat for the late afternoon and into
tonight. West to northwest winds will increase 10-20 mph with
some gusts 25-30 mph. Humidity levels will be comfortable and
max temps will be seasonable with 60s to lower/mid 70s.

.PREV DISCUSSION [0655 EDT]...As an initial upper shortwave is
exiting eastward into New England while a second impulse digs
over the Upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through tonight. As
this second shortwave passes to the south, a region of rain
showers will spread from west to east, primarily to the south of
I-90 and most likely along the I-84 corridor. Sufficient
instability (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg) will allow for embedded
thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoon. While storms may
result in a brief heavy downpour, no severe weather is expected.
North of I-90 and farther from the synoptic forcing for ascent,
showers will be much more isolated or altogether absent, while
skies trend clearer through the evening and overnight.

Enhanced cloud cover early this morning will allow for a mild
start to the day, but cooler air aloft within upper troughing
with keep temperatures near to slightly below normal, reaching
afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and
upper 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations. A surface wind shift
boundary will sink across the region overnight tonight, with
developing cold advection in northerly flow allowing for cooler
temperatures as lows fall to the upper 30s to low 40s in high
terrain and mid 40s to low 50s at lower elevations.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough axis passes overhead on Thursday while cold
advection on low-level northerly flow keeps temperatures
slightly below normal, rising to afternoon highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to low 70s at lower
elevations. Rain showers associated with surface troughing
finally exit south and east from the Mid-Hudson Valley and
northwestern Connecticut by mid-morning, as dry weather returns
across the region. Surface high pressure to the west and weak
surface troughing offshore to the southeast will result in
potentially gusty winds as high as 20 mph along north-south
oriented valleys and in areas of high terrain.

The cooler airmass will additionally feature much drier air,
with dewpoints falling into the mid 30s to mid 40s by Thursday
evening. This combination of dry air and gusty winds may promote
a brief period of marginal risk for fire spread; see additional
details in the Fire Weather discussion below. Cloud coverage
will increase with diurnal heating in the afternoon, before
rapidly rising heights aloft result in a robust clearing trend
through Thursday evening and night. As narrow but high amplitude
upper ridging and associated surface high pressure approach
from the west, light winds and largely clear skies will result
in ideal conditions for radiational cooling, resulting in cool
overnight lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s across the region.

Building ridging and surface high pressure will yield continued
dry weather through Friday and Friday night. Temperatures will
trend upward beneath mostly sunny skies, reaching afternoon
highs in the 60s to mid 70s, and falling to overnight lows
in the 40s to near 50 across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level ridging over the weekend will be replaced by general
flat/zonal upper level flow by early next week. Overall, much of the
long term will feature mostly dry and summerlike weather. There
remains some uncertainty on when upper-level shortwave perturbations
will pass through the flow bringing chances for some showers.
Currently, next Tuesday may be the more favored day during this
period. Humidity levels will slowly increase through the period as
well.

Temperatures will trend upward through the period with highs
starting out in the 70s to around 80 on Saturday rising to the upper
70s to upper 80s by Tuesday. Lows will also trend upward starting
out in the upper 40s to lower 50s Saturday night to the mid-50s to
lower 60s by Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12z/Thu...An upper level trough will be in place through the
upcoming TAF period. An upper level shortwave will pass by to the
south later this afternoon into tonight. VFR conditions are in place
across much of the TAF sites, except for MVFR stratus around KPSF.
The MVFR stratus will lift later this morning with VFR conditions
through this afternoon. Much of the day will be dry but an isolated
shower will be possible at KPOU, so will include a VCSH starting at
18z.

A period of rainfall is likely at KPOU tonight associated with the
upper shortwave. Low end VFR or high end MVFR conditions are
possible during this period of rain. The remainder of the TAF sites
should remain dry with VFR conditions with some mid and high clouds.

Westerly wind early this morning will become north to northwesterly
at 5-10 kt through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dry airmass and deep mixing will result in surface dewpoints
falling to the mid 30s to mid 40s across the region, while
temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s will lead to minimum RH
values around 35 to 40%. North to northwest winds of 10 to 15
mph with gusts as high as 20 mph in the afternoon may further
support an enhanced risk for fire spread. However, winds and
humidity aside, widespread recent rainfall of 0.5 to 1 inch and
locally higher amounts of 2 to 3 inches in higher terrain, in
addition to increasingly green fuels, may act to inhibit said
risk. Therefore, with marginally supportive weather conditions
for fire spread and considering antecedent rainfall, no
statements for fire weather are currently anticipated.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun
FIRE WEATHER...Picard