026
AXNT20 KNHC 160434
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu May 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0432 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: Pulsing gale-force winds are
forecast in the Agadir area of the Meteo-France high seas
forecast until 16/00 UTC, and then again from 16/12 UTC to 16/21
UTC. Seas in the 8-11 ft range are possible with these winds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France
at https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes near 11N15W to 06.5N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 06.5N20W to 04N40W and to 06N50.5W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01.5N to
07N and east of 2W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 08N between 24.5W and 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend SW to the central
Gulf near 26N87W where it transitions to a stationary front that
continues to Tamiahua, Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue across the eastern Gulf from 25.5N to 27N
between 83W and 86W tonight in association with a pre-frontal
trough per recent satellite imagery. Gentle to moderate SW winds
are east of the front, except fresh to localized strong SE winds
north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate E winds are
found west of the front. Seas are slight to moderate across the
entire basin.

For the forecast, the front will lift as a warm front over the
western half of the basin tonight into Thu while it stalls E of
90W. This will shift the focus of heavy rain and thunderstorms
to the NW Gulf on Thu through the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate
to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, pulsing to locally
strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. Winds
will slightly weaken Sun into early next week as the gradient
relaxes. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Mexico
continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1019 mb high pressure centered near 29N55.5W is supporting
fresh to strong easterly winds offshore of central and eastern
Honduras, as well as in the south-central Caribbean, including
portions of the Gulf of Venezuela. Mainly moderate E to SE winds
prevail across the remainder of the basin, except light and
variable in the southwest Caribbean south of 12N. Seas are in
the 3-4 ft range east of 70W, and in the 5-8 ft range west of
70W. Isolated moderate convection is noted in the southwest
Caribbean south of 13.5N.

For the forecast, strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will
persist through Sun, reaching near gale-force speeds Fri evening
into Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in
the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Sun evening.
Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds. Gentle to
moderate winds are expected elsewhere through early next week.
Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America
continues across areas in the NW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
Gale Warning in the East Atlantic Ocean.

Fresh to locally strong SW winds and moderate seas are ongoing N
of 28N between the NE Florida offshore waters and 69W as a cold
front begins to move off the Florida coast. Heavy showers and
thunderstorms with frequent lightning and gusty winds are
occurring N of 26N and W of 67W along a pre-frontal trough.
Otherwise, ridging extends over the rest of the Southwest North
Atlantic offshore waters. Light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are there, due to the influence of this high.

In the central Atlantic, a weak cold front extends from 31N46W to
the remnant trough near 24N52.5W. East of the front another
surface trough is producing scattered moderate convection north
of 27.5N between 33.5W and 41W.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1029 mb high pressure north of the
area near 42N33W dominates the waters. Gentle to moderate NE to
E winds prevail across the open waters and moderate seas, except
fresh to strong N to NE winds north of 18N between the coast of
Africa and 20W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue pushing
off the NE Florida coast tonight and extend from 31N73W to
Freeport Thu afternoon, from 31N65W to 27N69W Fri afternoon and
weaken as it extends from 31N61W to 28N71W Sat morning. Fresh to
strong winds are forecast ahead of the front through Fri night
along with showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will improve
Sat as the front dissipates. Tranquil conditions are expected
the remainder weekend.

$$
KRV