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250
FXUS61 KBGM 151816
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
216 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains in place through tonight bringing mostly
clear skies and warm, muggy conditions. Very warm and humid
conditions remain in place through Thursday with scattered
showers and thunderstorms starting Wednesday afternoon and
evening. A few storms could produce heavy downpours. It looks to
dry out with lower humidity levels for Friday and Saturday,
along with seasonably warm temperatures.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

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200 PM Update...

Air quality will be an issue through this evening across CNY as
smoke aloft and haze from Canada slides into the region, thus
an Air Quality Alert has been issued for small particulates
across most of Central NY (except Sullivan county). Otherwise,
skies will be mainly sunny with seasonably warm temperatures
this evening.

Tonight remain mostly clear, warm and muggy as the ridge axis
slides east of the area and SW flow pushes a southern airmass
into the region. Temperatures and dewpoints will be in the mid
to upper 60s once again. There could be some patchy fog around.

Wednesday will remain hot and muggy, with temperatures and
dewpoints a few degrees warmer than Today. Heat indices are
expected to reach advisory criteria for the Finger Lakes,
portions of the Southern Tier and Mohawk Valley. Confidence has
increase, and a Heat Advisory is now in effect for these area
from 11 AM to 8 PM Wednesday. Highs will be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s and with dew points 70 to 75 peak heat indices will
reach well into the 90s over the region.

A strong shortwave is expected to move into the area late Weds
afternoon or early evening, bringing increasing clouds, showers
and t`storms across the region, which could eventually lower
temperatures by the evening, at least for western portions of
the area. There remains uncertainty on exact timing for the
clouds showers and storms to arrive, but the latest guidance is
trending later, mainly after 4-6 PM for most locations.

Model soundings show a very moist atmosphere with long, skinny
CAPE and deep warm cloud depths, leading to storms producing
heavy rain and possible flash flooding. PWATs will reach 1.6 to
1.9 inches by Wednesday evening, along with MLCAPE of 1500-2500
J/kg expected. Bulk shear is fairly light, between 15-25 kts
which should limit severe storm potential. However, with the
high instability a stray stronger or even isolated severe pulse
storm cannot be ruled out. SPC now has the western half of the
area in a Marginal Severe Risk (level 1 of 5). The main potential
with any of these stronger storm will be isolated damaging wind
gusts. DCAPE values on the 12z GFS soundings have increase to
around 1000 J/kg in the late afternoon & evening, and this
indicates the potential for those wind gusts with the storms.

A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding
is present across NEPA Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
With the recent heavy rain over this area Sunday and Monday,
flash flooding will be achieved easier (with lower flash flood
guidance) thus necessitating the Slight Risk. The rest of the
region is under a Marginal Risk where slow moving storms dropping
heavy rain could cause isolated flash flooding issues. At this
time, confidence was not quite high enough on the timing and
location of convection to issue any flood watches, but if
confidence does increase watches may be needed. Scattered
showers and storms continue into Wednesday night along with
mainly cloudy skies and warm, humid conditions. Overnight lows
only dip down into the upper 60s and lower 70s areawide.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM Update...

Short wave continues to move through the region Wednesday night with
additional showers and thunderstorms are expected. Model soundings
show PWATs surging from 1.8 to 2 inches along with a warm cloud
depth of 12K feet Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
Conditions are looking favorable for heavy downpours. With
southwesterly flow temperatures remain warm and muggy Wednesday
night with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Zonal flow settles
in aloft Thursday with additional waves of moisture moving in
from the west. This will keep scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast especially through the afternoon.
Again there will be the potential for some locally heavy and
gusty storms with plenty of instability and PWATs around 1.6 to
1.8" on average. Temperatures remain warm Thursday with highs in
the low to upper 80s. Factoring in dew points still in the
upper 60s and low 70s, heat indices are expected to be in the
low 90s. Temperatures Thursday night range in the low to upper
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
320 AM Update...

A cold front approaches the region on Friday bringing another round
of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance looks to be across the
NY southern Tier and NE PA, but will depend on the exact timing and
location of the front. Behind the front temperatures cool with highs
in the low to upper 70s. Quiet conditions settle in Friday night and
continue into Saturday as high pressure builds. Comfortable
temperatures and dry conditions hold on Saturday ahead of the
next approaching system. Frontal system pushes northeast on
Sunday into Monday with returning showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Range of VFR to LIFR across the terminals this morning as
widespread fog has developed across the region. Fog should
dissipate by mid morning, with VFR conditions expected through
the evening. Haze from smoke is expected to move over the area,
but will not impact visibilities. Another round of fog should
develop tonight with high pressure overhead, clear skies and
light to calm winds. High enough confidence for IFR/LIFR at ELM
to include in the TAF. BGM/AVP/ITH are showing signs of IFR/LIFR
restrictions, but confidence is not high enough to include in
the TAFs at this time so MVFR conditions have been introduced.


Outlook...

Wednesday AM... Mainly VFR.

Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night...Scattered to
numerous showers and t`storms could bring occasional
restrictions.

Thursday and Friday...Restrictions likely with a few rounds of
showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...Mainly VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ015>018-
     023>025-036-037-055-056.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...JTC