-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
982
FXUS61 KBGM 021823
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
223 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible today across
a majority of the region. The first half of the week will warmer and
mostly quiet but isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
be possible. Shower chances increase midweek as the next system
approaches the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
945 AM Update...

Forecast remains mostly on-track and only made some minor
changes to cloud cover based on latest METSAT and observations.

615 AM Update...

For this update, there were some minor changes to PoPs to be
within better collaboration of some neighboring offices. The
main area of focus western portions of the Southern Tier and
Finger Lakes. Some of the 06z guidance came in with showers
lingering there longer than originally forecasted. Some of the
updated guidance also maintain showers into far eastern
portions of our CWA before fizzling out. It was decided to not
increase PoPs further east quite yet as coverage still looks
more isolated by then.

330 AM Update...

The quiet conditions will come to an end today as high pressure
moves east out of the region and a shortwave trough moves in from
the west. Drier conditions will hold on through the morning and
early afternoon hours, especially as precipitation struggles to
overcome the dry air initially. Eventually, scattered showers will
develop by mid-afternoon across CNY and portions of the Northern
Tier of PA. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. MLCAPE
values will be less than 300 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear is around 20
kts, so strong storms are not expected. NAM guidance has higher
instability but given the increasing sky cover through the morning
hours, conditions should not become too unstable. Temperatures today
will max out in the 70s with a few valley locations near 80. With
decreasing heights, increasing cloud cover, and showers moving in,
today`s forecasted temperatures were lowered below most guidance
using a blend of the NBM, NBM tenth percentile, NAM, and Conshort.
As rain moves in, temperatures will also likely begin to cool prior
to sunset.

Overnight, thunderstorm chances diminish but showers continue. The
Catskills and NEPA will have the best chance for showers, though
isolated showers will be possible up into the Southern Tier.
While model soundings do not show much for an inversion tonight,
patchy fog will be possible. Low-level moisture will remain
present, the ground will be wet, and winds will be light which
all combined should help aid in the development of patchy,
valley fog or at least low stratus. Temperatures tonight will
remain mild, only falling into the upper 50s and low 60s.

A ridge begins to build into the region on Monday, but weak waves
look to kick off some isolated showers and thunderstorms. Model
guidance are showing more instability compared to today but
shear will still be weak. There is some uncertainty where
showers will pop up but this forecast favored short-range
guidance for PoPs, which is mainly limited to NEPA and far
western portions of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes regions.
Most of CNY will stay dry and will see mostly sunny skies.
Temperatures will trend warmer to start the week as the ridge
builds in. Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
220 PM Update...

A cooling trend begins Tuesday as a slow-moving upper-level low
from Canada slowly marches towards Central NY and NE PA.
Temperatures will decrease from the low- to mid-80s Tuesday to
high-70s to low-80s Wednesday. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday before the
aforementioned system swings down into the Great Lakes region,
bringing heavier rain showers Wednesday night. The Weather
Prediction Center indicates a Marginal Risk (at least 5% risk of
flash flooding) for Wednesday night, with QPF values up to half
an inch of rainfall overnight Wednesday through early Thursday
morning. We`ll keep monitoring the changes in guidance as we get
closer to mid-week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
220 PM Update...

The slow-moving upper-level low spins just north of the region
and goes quasi-stationary there through the rest of the long-
term period. The cooling trend from mid-week continues into the
weekend, with temperatures falling from mid- to high-70s
Thursday to the high-60s to low-70s Saturday. It`ll be quite the
unsettled pattern with chances for rain showers during the
entire stretch from Thursday to Saturday, with chances of
thunderstorms in the afternoons. Currently, the Weather
Prediction Center has the area under a Marginal Risk (at least 5%
risk of flash flooding) for Thursday; it wouldn`t be surprising
if this continued through the rest of the week due to the
unsettled pattern. It`s difficult to pinpoint how much rainfall
we may receive this upcoming week since different long- term
models suggest the center of the system to be in different
positions every day of the long-term, which can influence the
amount of rainfall an area could receive. For now, we`ll
continue to monitor how long-term guidance shifts over the next
few days.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at most terminals until late
tonight/ early Monday morning. A weak system will bring light showers
to the region this afternoon and evening, but confidence is too
low to place showers on station at any one terminal. The best
chances for any rain showers will be at ELM, BGM, ITH, and SYR,
but even if these sites see showers, there are no restrictions
expected since showers will be fairly light. As showers move
out of these terminals after 00z tonight, conditions will become
favorable for fog or low stratus to develop overnight. Model guidance
was favoring ELM, BGM, and ITH with restrictions, but only put
visibility restrictions at ELM as the highest confidence is fog
will occur there. There is a bit more uncertainty at BGM and
ITH, so only brought in MVFR ceilings for now and will take
another look when 0Z TAFs are due. Any fog that develops will
likely lift around 12z tomorrow, but there could be some
lingering low ceilings.



Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Isolated rain showers
during the daytime hours. Patchy valley fog and restrictions
Monday night.

Wednesday...Low chance of showers/storms and associated
restrictions.

Wednesday night into Thursday...Increasing chance of
showers/storms and associated restrictions as a cold front
approaches.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL/MPK
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MPK