-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
207
FXUS61 KBGM 110732
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
332 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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An upper level low will slowly shift east of the region today
leading to some clearing. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday and Thursday. This will followed by our next
chance for showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front
Friday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

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A broad upper level low will gradually shift east of the region
through tonight. However, coupled with northerly/northwesterly flow
enough moisture looks to be trapped to keep clouds around most of
the day. The lift with the upper level low may still be
sufficient for a few sprinkles or isolated showers but any QPF
looks very light. Thanks to the clouds temperatures will
struggle to reach the mid and upper 60`s today.

Clouds will still be slowly clearing out tonight. This should
prevent fog from becoming dense or widespread as well with low
temperatures around 50. If clearing occurs quicker though fog
formation would be more widespread given the fairly light winds.
High pressure builds in for Wednesday yielding warmer temperatures
and more sunshine with temperatures likely well into the 70`s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
310 PM Update...

Upper level low shifts eastwards on Wednesday allowing a ridge to
build in over our region along with a surface high. Conditions are
expected to remain calm and dry with partly to mostly sunny skies.
A temperature increasing trend starts on Wednesday as winds
shift southwest. Highs return to the mid and upper 70s with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s. High pressure is
expected to remain in control through Thursday with temperatures
climbing into the low to mid 80s. Cloud cover begins to fill in
Thursday night as a frontal system approaches the Great Lakes.
Lows will be more seasonable with temperatures ranging in the
low to mid 60s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
310 PM Update...

Frontal system moves through the region on Friday bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms through the day. Precipitation still looks
to move in early Friday morning for both the EURO and GFS
resolutions. Canadian favors a more slower resolution with showers
moving in towards the afternoon time frame. Pwat values up to 1.5
are expected with these showers leading to the potential for locally
heavy rainfall. Model soundings also show some instability
parameters present suggesting strong storms could also be possibility.
Although this will be highly dependent on the timing of the
frontal passage. High pressure builds into the region behind the
front, bringing nice and dry conditions to the CWA for the
weekend and into Monday. Temps will be seasonable, in the 70s
and 80s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

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Mainly MVFR ceilings in place with some patchy IFR at KITH and
KBGM. These ceilings should be mainly steady till the 12-15Z
timeframe where they will slowly lift and break up. VFR later
today and tonight. Watching for possible valley fog around 06Z
Wednesday given light winds.


Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Morning fog at KELM
possible Wednesday.

Thursday night through Friday night...Restrictions possible in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, highest chances Friday
afternoon.

Saturday...mainly VFR.
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&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...DJN/ES
AVIATION...MWG